[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151734
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF LOW WITH GALE WARNING...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO
CENTERED NEAR 25N93W. AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
ALSO ACROSS THE SW GULF CENTERED NEAR 22N90W SUPPORTING THE
SURFACE FEATURE. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N91W INTO THE
LOW CENTER THEN SW TO 22N95W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 87W-94W. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT
THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING GALE-FORCE WINDS BETWEEN 90 NM AND 240
NM NE QUADRANT. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES NW ACROSS THE W GULF OF MEXICO. REGARDLESS OF THE
TROPICAL FORMATION...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST AND THE
WESTERN LOUISIANA COAST BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THIS SYSTEM PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIAHSFAT2 AND WMO HEADER FZNT02
KNHC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC WITH AXIS FROM
13N23W TO 05N26W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE LIES WITHIN A
STRONG EASTERLY AFRICAN JET WITH WINDS REACHING 35-45 KT. A
BROAD AREA OF SAHARAN DUST PREVAILS IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS
WAVE SUPPORTING STABLE CONDITIONS AND THEREFORE...NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC
WITH AXIS FROM 15N50W TO 07N49W MOVING W AT 15 KT. SSMI TPW
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE MOISTURE CONTENT BEHIND
THE WAVE AXIS. DESPITE THIS...NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED AS SAHARAN DUST IS ALSO IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS
FEATURE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS AT ABOUT 200 NM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 15N57W TO 07N60W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING W
AT ABOUT 15 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS AND THE GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE DEPICTS A 700 MB TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 55W-62W. DOPPLER
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL SIGNATURE OF THIS WAVE...WITH SOME
CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG 59W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 08N-13N BETWEEN 56W-63W.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N82W TO 08N81W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS A 700 MB TROUGH ALONG 82W.
SSMI TPW IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL MOIST ENVIRONMENT SURROUNDING
THIS WAVE. DESPITE THIS...ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ONLY OBSERVED
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE WITHIN A FEW NM N OF THE
COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA MAINLY ALONG 10N.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST INTO THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM 14N17W TO 08N22W. THE INTERTROPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS FROM THIS POINT TO 07N25W THEN
RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE FROM 06N27W TO 06N46W. ISOLATED
CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 27W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE W GULF. FOR
MORE INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION
ABOVE. THE BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC EXTENDS W REACHING THE E GULF MAINLY E OF 90W. ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SW
FLORIDA. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING OFFSHORE REACHING THE
E GULF S OF 26N AND E OF 83W. WHILE GALE FORCE CONDITIONS ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN THE NE QUADRANT OF THE SURFACE LOW...FRESH SE
WINDS EXTEND FARTHER N AND E FROM THE LOW GENERALLY BETWEEN 86W-
91W ACROSS THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE LOW OVER THE W GULF TO MOVE NW TOWARD THE
TEXAS COASTLINE. WHILE THE PRIMARY MARINE IMPACTS WILL REMAIN
STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS...HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF TEXAS AND LOUISIANA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE PREVAILS ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN WHILE ANOTHER
ONE IS APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. FOR MORE INFORMATION
PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE. THE BROAD AREA OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC EXTENDS SW
REACHING THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. SAHARAN DUST CONTINUES OVER THE
AREA INHIBITING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. GENTLE TO MODERATE
TRADES ARE DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA EXCEPT THE FAR W PORTION...WHERE MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS
PREVAIL W OF 86W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE WAVE E
OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO ENTER THE CARIBBEAN ENHANCING
CONVECTION. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER REGIME IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.

...HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA AND
SAHARAN DUST CONTINUES INHIBITING CONVECTION. THESE CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE WHOLE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY 2 CENTERS...THE FIRST IS A 1021 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR
29N77W AND THE OTHER IS A 1027 MB LOCATED NEAR 32N31W. A BROAD
AREA OF SAHARAN DUST IS ALSO EVIDENT ACROSS THE BASIN WHICH
CONTINUES INHIBITING CONVECTION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED N OF
OUR AREA IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED CONVECTION N OF 29N BETWEEN 57W-
62W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE RIDGE TO
PERSIST.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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