[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151043
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO CENTERED NEAR 23N91W THAT IS
NEARLY COLLOCATED WITH A 1007 MB LOW NEAR 23N92W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N90W INTO THE LOW CENTER THEN SW TO
20N94W. A RELATIVELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN
THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED OFF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA IN THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 29N78W. GIVEN THE
INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT...NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE CONDITIONS
ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 300 NM OF CENTER IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OF THE LOW. A RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AROUND 15/0256 UTC
INDICATED RETRIEVALS OF NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE WITHIN THE NE
QUADRANT NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE GENERALLY NW DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WHERE UPPER LEVEL
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 06N26W TO 13N23W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A RELATIVELY BROAD GLOBAL MODEL
INDICATED 700 MB TROUGH BETWEEN 22W-30W AND LIES WITHIN A STRONG
EASTERLY AFRICAN JET WITH WINDS REACHING 35-45 KT. GIVEN THE
USUAL DYNAMICS FOR A TROPICAL WAVE...A STRONG SAHARAN AIR LAYER
IS PROVIDING FOR AN OVERALL STABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE
EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC. THIS IS RESULTING IN A RELATIVE LACK OF
ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N48W TO 18N46W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A POLEWARD EXTENSION OF DEEP LAYERED
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER BETWEEN 42W-50W ON THE WESTERN EXTENT
OF THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER CURRENTLY PRESENT ACROSS THE TROPICAL
EASTERN ATLC. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE WAVE
AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 05N59W TO 13N56W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES A MAXIMUM SURROUNDING
THE WAVE AXIS BETWEEN 53W-62W IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MODEST
GLOBAL MODEL INDICATED 700 MB TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 54W-62W.
FARTHER WEST AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE SAHARAN AIR
LAYER...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-12N BETWEEN
55W-63W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N81W TO 16N82W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED NEAR 24N68W WITH ENERGY LIKELY
SPLITTING TO THE NW AND W. THE STRONGEST 850 MB TO 700 MB SIGNAL
ON GLOBAL MODEL DATA IS INDICATED WITH THE WESTWARD MOVING
ENERGY FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF 11N81W. THIS ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH THE WAVE AT
THIS TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 15N17W TO
10N20W TO 07N25W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 06N26W TO 04N30W TO 04N42W TO 03N51W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-06N BETWEEN 28W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
ASIDE FROM THE SPECIAL FEATURE DISCUSSED ABOVE...THE UPPER
LEVELS ARE INFLUENCED BY THE SPECIAL FEATURES UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED NEAR 23N91W ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER GEORGIA NEAR 32N82W. THE RESULTING
CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE ARE THE NEARLY COLLOCATED 1007 MB
SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE SW GULF NEAR 23N93W AND THE NEARLY
STATIONARY 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED OFFSHORE OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA NEAR 29N78W. WHILE NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE CONDITIONS
ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THE NE QUADRANT OF THE SURFACE LOW...FRESH
TO STRONG SE WINDS EXTEND FARTHER NORTH AND EAST FROM THE LOW
GENERALLY BETWEEN 86W-93W ACROSS THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE
BASIN. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK NW TOWARD THE TEXAS
COASTLINE THIS WEEK. WHILE THE PRIMARY MARINE IMPACTS WILL
REMAIN STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS...A SECONDARY IMPACT WILL
BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS THAT ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM AND THE
LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ANTICIPATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
TEXAS AND LOUISIANA THIS WEEK. CURRENTLY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FORM 23N-27N BETWEEN 87W-92W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE INFLUENCE OF THE SPECIAL FEATURES SYSTEM STRETCHES ACROSS
THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRING N OF 17N W OF
82W...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
BELIZE...AND GUATEMALA. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RIDGING ALOFT
AND GENERALLY N-NW FLOW W OF 70W. EVEN WITH THE PRESENCE OF A
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 81W...THE OVERALL STABLE ENVIRONMENT IS
PROVIDING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING AND STRONG TRADES
S OF 18N. E OF 70W...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM
22N65W TO A BASE NEAR 12N70W IN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ALOFT. THE
STABILITY EXTENDS TO THE SURFACE CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY... WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND THE APPROACH OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
58W/59W ACROSS FAR SE PORTIONS...INCLUDING THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO...AND NE VENEZUELA.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH NW FLOW
ALOFT PROVIDING AN OVERALL STABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE ISLAND.
THESE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS DUE TO AN OVERALL DRYING TREND ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE EAST.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFFSHORE OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
NEAR 29N78W. ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
STRAITS S OF 26N W OF 75W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING
DOMINATES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC WATERS
WITH OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. THE RIDGING IS ANCHORED
BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N34W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN
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