[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150600
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO CENTERED NEAR 23N91W THAT IS
NEARLY COLLOCATED WITH A 1007 MB LOW. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 26N91W INTO THE LOW CENTER TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 19N92W.
A RELATIVELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN THIS AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE AND A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED OFF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA IN THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 29N78W. GIVEN THE INCREASED
PRESSURE GRADIENT...NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE CONDITIONS ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN 270 NM OF CENTER IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF
THE LOW. A RECENT WINDSAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AROUND 14/2350 UTC
INDICATED A FEW NON-RAIN FLAGGED RETRIEVALS OF NEAR GALE TO GALE
FORCE WITHIN THE NE QUADRANT NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE GENERALLY NW DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WHERE
UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 05N20W TO 12N19W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A RELATIVELY BROAD GLOBAL MODEL
INDICATED 700 MB TROUGH BETWEEN 17W-24W AND LIES WITHIN A STRONG
EASTERLY AFRICAN JET WITH WINDS REACHING 35-45 KT. GIVEN THE
USUAL DYNAMICS FOR A TROPICAL WAVE...A STRONG SAHARAN AIR LAYER
IS PROVIDING FOR AN OVERALL STABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE
EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC. THIS IS RESULTING IN A RELATIVE LACK OF
ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 06N44W TO 15N45W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A POLEWARD EXTENSION OF DEEP LAYERED
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER BETWEEN 40W-50W ON THE WESTERN EXTENT
OF THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER CURRENTLY PRESENT ACROSS THE TROPICAL
EASTERN ATLC. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE WAVE
AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 03N57W TO 15N56W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES A MAXIMUM
SURROUNDING THE WAVE AXIS BETWEEN 52W-62W IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
MODEST GLOBAL MODEL INDICATED 700 MB TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 53W-
59W. FARTHER WEST AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE SAHARAN AIR
LAYER...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-12N BETWEEN 54W-
61W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SURINAME
AND GUYANA.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N80W TO 20N80W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED NEAR 24N68W WITH ENERGY LIKELY
SPLITTING TO THE NW AND W. THE STRONGEST 850 MB TO 700 MB SIGNAL
ON GLOBAL MODEL DATA IS INDICATED WITH THE WESTWARD MOVING
ENERGY FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF 12N80W. MOST ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH THE WAVE AT
THIS TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N23W TO
04N40W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-07N BETWEEN 25W-
42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
ASIDE FROM THE SPECIAL FEATURE DISCUSSED ABOVE...THE UPPER
LEVELS ARE INFLUENCED BY THE SPECIAL FEATURES UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED NEAR 23N91W ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER GEORGIA NEAR 32N82W. THE RESULTING
CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE ARE THE NEARLY COLLOCATED 1007 MB
SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE SW GULF AND THE NEARLY STATIONARY 1019 MB
HIGH CENTERED OFFSHORE OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 29N78W.
WHILE NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN
THE NE QUADRANT OF THE SURFACE LOW...FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS
EXTEND FARTHER NORTH AND EAST FROM THE LOW GENERALLY BETWEEN 86W-
93W ACROSS THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE BASIN. THE LOW IS FORECAST
TO TRACK NW TOWARD THE TEXAS COASTLINE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE
THE PRIMARY MARINE IMPACTS WILL REMAIN STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING
SEAS...A SECONDARY IMPACT WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
THAT ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION ANTICIPATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF TEXAS AND LOUISIANA
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE INFLUENCE OF THE SPECIAL FEATURES SYSTEM STRETCHES ACROSS
THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
OCCURRING N OF 14N W OF 82W...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...AND GUATEMALA. OTHERWISE...
THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ARE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF RIDGING ALOFT AND GENERALLY N-NW FLOW W OF 70W.
EVEN WITH THE PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 80W...THE
OVERALL STABLE ENVIRONMENT IS PROVIDING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND STRONG TRADES S OF 18N. E OF 70W...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 20N65W TO A BASE NEAR 11N70W IN MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ALOFT. THE STABILITY EXTENDS TO THE SURFACE
CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS FAR SE
PORTIONS...INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND TRINIDAD AND
TOBAGO.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
INTO MONDAY WITH NW FLOW ALOFT PROVIDING AN OVERALL STABLE
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE ISLAND. THESE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS DUE TO AN OVERALL DRYING
TREND ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFFSHORE OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA NEAR 29N78W. ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
FLORIDA STRAITS S OF 26N W OF 77W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC
WATERS WITH OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS. THE RIDGING IS ANCHORED BY
A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N52W AND A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 31N34W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN
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