[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVED OFF OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO IN THE AFTERNOON. AIRCRAFT
RECON DATA DEPICT A BROAD LOW CENTER OF 1007 MB FORMED IN THE
SOUTHERN TROUGH NEAR 22N91W. THE SYSTEM IS ACCOMPANIED BY AN
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS S OF 26N BETWEEN 84W AND 92W INCLUDING THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND GALE-FORCE WINDS WELL TO THE EAST OF THE
TROUGH. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NW OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WHERE UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ABOUT THIS FEATURE IS
FOUND IN THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER WMO FZNT02 KNHC OR
MIAHSFAT2. THE CHANCES OF THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS HIGH.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE E TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR 17W MOVING
W AT 5 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY INDICATES MODERATE MOISTURE
ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE THAT IS BEING ENGULFED BY SAHARAN DRY AIR
AND DUST. ISOLATED SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO
12N E OF 26W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS NEAR
43W MOVING W AT 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SAHARAN DRY AIR
AND DUST ARE IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT...THUS HINDERING
CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W/53W MOVING W AT 15 KT OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS. SSMI TPW IMAGERY INDICATE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IN
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT THAT SUPPORT SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 11N BETWEEN 50W AND 62W. SOME SAHARAN
DRY AIR AND DUST ARE IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THIS WAVE WHICH IS
INHIBITING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION OVER THIS AREA.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR 79W
MOVING W AT 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN
RELATIVELY DRY AIR...THUS RESULTING IN A LACK OF CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N14W TO 08N16W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS NEAR 07N20W AND CONTINUES THROUGH 06N40W...IT RESUMES
NEAR 06N45W TO 07N52W. OTHER THAN CONVECTION DISCUSSED IN THE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
03N TO 05N BETWEEN 30W AND 39W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO
SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA WITH A LOW CENTER OF 1007 MB IN THE SOUTHERN TROUGH
NEAR 22N91W. EAST OF THE UPPER LOW A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS S OF 26N BETWEEN 84W AND 92W INCLUDING THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. SEE THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED IN RADAR WITHIN 75 NM OFF THE
WESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA. ASIDE FROM THE STRONGER WINDS NEAR THE
SPECIAL FEATURE...SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT
DOMINATE THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THE SPECIAL
FEATURE WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO WHERE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. EXPECT NUMEROUS AREAS
OF CONVECTION TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF TO NW GULF
THROUGH MONDAY...ALONG WITH AREAS OF GALE FORCE WINDS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT ALONG THE YUCATAN CHANNEL SUPPORT SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 18N W OF 83W. ANOTHER AREA OF
DIFFLUENCE IS ALONG CUBA BEING GENERATED BY AN ELONGATED UPPER
RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND A TROUGH COVERING
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS ENVIRONMENT ALOFT
COMBINED WITH MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SUPPORTING SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS. THESE SHOWERS
AND TSTMS EXTENDS TO HAITI AND SW DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A TROPICAL
WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL
WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST COVER
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN HINDERING
CONVECTION. SE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE N OF 18N W OF 85W
ASSOCIATED WITH GALE FORCE WINDS NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. NE
TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 67W AND 77W.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION AND WINDS WILL DECREASE OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AS THE SPECIAL FEATURE LIFTS NW
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE
LESSER ANTILLES MAY BRING CONVECTION TO THE ISLANDS BY MONDAY
NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...

SAHARAN DUST IS BEING OBSERVED OVER THE EASTERN ISLAND TODAY IN
ADDITION TO RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS. THESE FACTORS
ARE HELPING TO INHIBIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER
THIS PORTION OF THE ISLAND. AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE IS ALONG CUBA
BEING GENERATED BY AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND A TROUGH COVERING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. THIS ENVIRONMENT ALOFT COMBINED WITH MODERATE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS SUPPORTING SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER HAITI AND SW
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WEAK 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 29N79W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
JUST S OF THIS SURFACE HIGH IS PRODUCING DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT
THAT ALONG MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS S OF 26N W OF 60W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING
DOMINATES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ATLC WATERS WITH FAIR WEATHER AND
IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN FEATURE DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
FOR TROPICAL WAVES INFORMATION SEE THE SECTION ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR
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