[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160556
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM BILL IS CENTERED NEAR 27.1N 94.2W AT 16/0300 UTC
OR ABOUT 80 NM SE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS AND ABOUT 105 NM SSW OF
GALVESTON TEXAS MOVING NW AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 55 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-28N
BETWEEN 92W-95W. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 04N31W TO 11N31W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE SHOWS UP BEST IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
WITH THE SIGNATURE NOTED BETWEEN 30W-40W AMIDST GENERALLY ZONAL
700 MB FLOW ALOFT. GIVEN THE USUAL DYNAMICS FOR A TROPICAL
WAVE...A STRONG SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS PROVIDING A STABLE
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC RESULTING IN A
RELATIVE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF
THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 07N51W TO 17N50W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A POLEWARD EXTENSION OF DEEP LAYERED
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER BETWEEN 49W-56W ON THE WESTERN EXTENT
OF THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER CURRENTLY PRESENT ACROSS THE TROPICAL
EASTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 60 NM OF 08N52W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N62W TO 15N60W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES MAXIMUM VALUES
SURROUNDING THE WAVE AXIS BETWEEN 56W-64W IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
GLOBAL MODEL INDICATED 700 MB TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 58W-66W.
FARTHER WEST...AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE SAHARAN AIR
LAYER...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 57W-
64W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 16N84W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SE CONUS WITH THE STRONGEST
850 MB TO 700 MB SIGNAL ON GLOBAL MODEL DATA INDICATED S OF 17N
BETWEEN 82W-87W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH THE
WAVE AT THIS TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 17N16W TO
15N18W TO 10N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 10N20W TO 06N31W TO 04N38W TO 04N51W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-10N BETWEEN 11W-16W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-06N BETWEEN 23W-
28W...AND FROM 03N-06N BETWEEN 35W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WHILE TROPICAL STORM BILL INFLUENCES THE NW PORTION OF THE GULF
THIS EVENING...PLENTY OF MOISTURE IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NE GULF WATERS.
MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS ARE NOTED W OF 87W OUTSIDE OF THE
CORE WIND FIELD OF BILL...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
OCCURRING WEST OF A LINE FROM 29N90W TO 23N82W. BILL IS FORECAST
TO TRACK NW TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST AND MAKE LANDFALL TUESDAY.
WHILE THE PRIMARY MARINE IMPACTS WILL REMAIN STRONG WINDS AND
HIGH SEAS ACROSS MARINE AREAS...A SECONDARY IMPACT WILL BE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS THAT ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM
AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ANTICIPATED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ANCHORED IN THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION AND
EXTEND ACROSS THE NE GULF THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS GENERALLY W OF 80W ACROSS
THE NW CARIBBEAN...FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA THIS EVENING PROVIDING AN OVERALL DRYING TREND
AND MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ADD IN LITTLE INFLUENCE
FROM A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 84W AND TRADES REMAIN IN THE RANGE OF
FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE LEVELS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TO
THE EAST OF 80W...UPPER LEVEL WINDS SHIFT WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS ALOFT. THIS RESULTS IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH FRESH TO STRONG TRADES CONTINUING AS THE
PRIMARY IMPACT. STRONGEST TRADES AS USUAL WITH HIGH PRESSURE SET
UP TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION...ARE OCCURRING
WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. OTHERWISE...
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 61W/62W IMPACTS THE SE CARIBBEAN
BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND ISOLATED
TSTMS S OF 16N E OF 65W...INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND
TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO.

...HISPANIOLA...
EARLIER CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED WITH MOSTLY FAIR SKIES
EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT PREVAILS AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AN OVERALL STABLE
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE ISLAND THROUGH TUESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFFSHORE OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
NEAR 28N77W. FAIR SKIES ARE NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SW NORTH
ATLC THIS EVENING. THE ONLY FEATURE CREEPING CLOSE TO THE
DISCUSSION BOUNDARY IS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N56W TO
32N63W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 33N67W. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 30N BETWEEN 50W-62W. OTHERWISE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC WATERS WITH OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. THE RIDGING IS ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 34N27W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN
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