[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101042
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 14N41W
TO 4N43W MOVING W 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPORY IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED IN A
MODERATE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 13N56W TO
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 7N59W MOVING W-NW 5-10 KT OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPORY IMAGERY SHOWS
THE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 56W-
59W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN IS ALONG THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA EXTENDING ALONG 83W/84W S OF 16N TO OVER COSTA RICA
MOVING W-NW 5-10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA
OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT CONTINUES TO COVER THE ENTIRE W CARIBBEAN.
NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 18N16W ALONG 17N19W 12N20W TO 7N25W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS
AND CONTINUES ALONG 4N36W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 16W-
21W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION COVERS A BROAD
AREA FROM 8N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 30W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEW ENGLAND OVER THE GULF TO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH A NARROW UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
CENTRAL CUBA JUST E OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER. THIS IS PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SE GULF S OF 26N E OF 87W TO OVER CUBA AND S FLORIDA.
THE UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE N/CENTRAL GULF N OF 27N BETWEEN PANAMA
CITY FLORIDA AND VERMILION BAY LOUISIANA. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO 24N90W WITH A
1015 MB HIGH NEAR 25N83W. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
S OF 20N IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BETWEEN 92W-95W. THIS IS LEAVING
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. SE
WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT IN THE S/CENTRAL GULF BETWEEN THE
SURFACE RIDGE AND A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE PACIFIC REGION S OF
MEXICO. THE STRONG WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF TO
THE NW GULF BY LATE THU THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO SAT AS THE
LOW S OF THE AREA DISSIPATES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA COVERS THE FAR NW
CARIBBEAN WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN ANCHORED ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND EXTENDING AN
AXIS NE ACROSS PUERTO RICO/THE VIRGIN ISLANDS INTO THE S/CENTRAL
ATLC. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN
77W-86W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...W CUBA...AND
JAMAICA. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE MOVING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 12N-17N E OF 66W. TROPICAL WAVE WILL
MOVE W-NW ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE FAR THE NW CARIBBEAN
TODAY. THE W TROPICAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE E CARIBBEAN LATE TODAY THEN THROUGH THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THU AND FRI. THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATE FRI.

...HISPANIOLA...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND ACCOMPANYING INSTABILITY COULD CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA JUST E OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER. AN UPPER
TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM THE
OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA TO E OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS WHICH
IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 26N W
OF 77W. A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE W ATLC EXTENDING
FROM 30N57W TO 23N71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. AN UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS PUERTO RICO/VIRGIN
ISLANDS INTO THE S/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 21N58W THEN NE TO BEYOND
32N48W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH A 1023
MB HIGH NEAR 31N41W. AN UPPER TROUGH THE NE ATLC EXTENDS THROUGH
32N21W ALONG 27N34W TO 18N46W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N22W ALONG 27N25W TO 26N31W. A
CUTOFF UPPER LOW IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC NE OF BARBADOS AND
EXTENDS TO THE LESSER ANTILLES. DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO THE SE OF
THIS UPPER LOW IS ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE. THE W ATLC SURFACE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY E INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC BY TONIGHT. THE WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE WILL BUILD W THU AND GRADUALLY LIFT N TO 28N FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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