[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100549
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 41W/42W
FROM 3N-12N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPORY IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED IN A
MODERATE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 13N54W TO
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 7N58W MOVING W-NW NEAR 10 KT OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPORY IMAGERY SHOWS
THE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 54W
AND THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN IS ALONG THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA EXTENDING ALONG 83W S OF 16N TO OVER COSTA RICA MOVING
W NEAR 5 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF
DEEP MOISTURE THAT CONTINUES TO COVER THE ENTIRE W CARIBBEAN.
NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 18N16W ALONG 17N19W 10N21W TO 6N25W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS
AND CONTINUES ALONG 3N34W TO 1N42W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-13N BETWEEN 13W-18W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION COVERS A BROAD AREA FROM 9N TO S OF THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 31W-49W AND FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 49W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEW ENGLAND OVER THE GULF TO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH A NARROW UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM W
CUBA ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO SOUTH CAROLINA. THIS IS
PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE GULF S OF 27N E OF
87W TO OVER CUBA AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO
THE TEXAS COAST WITH A 1013 MB HIGH NEAR 27N93W. THIS IS LEAVING
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. SURFACE
RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE N GULF THROUGH TONIGHT. THE N
PORTION OF THE W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
S/CENTRAL AND SW GULF WED AS ATLC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WESTWARD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES MOST THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED ALONG THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA AND EXTENDING AN AXIS NE ACROSS PUERTO RICO
AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS INTO THE S/CENTRAL ATLC. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF 77W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...CUBA...JAMAICA...AND PORTIONS
OF HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES S OF 18N E OF 65W. TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE W-NW ACROSS
THE NW CARIBBEAN AND ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT
THROUGH WED. THE W TROPICAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WED THEN ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN WED NIGHT
THROUGH FRI. THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE WILL
APPROACH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS BY FRI.

...HISPANIOLA...
SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF
THE ISLAND. HIGH TEMPERATURES AND ACCOMPANYING INSTABILITY COULD
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA
TO JUST E OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS WHICH IS PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM ALONG THE COAST N OF 30N. A
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM 30N59W
TO 24N71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
150 NM E AND 90 NM W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. AN UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS PUERTO RICO/VIRGIN ISLANDS
INTO THE S/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 23N57W THEN N TO BEYOND 32N50W. A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH A 1025 MB HIGH
NEAR 32N42W. AN UPPER LOW IN THE NE ATLC EXTENDS AN UPPER TROUGH
THROUGH 32N26W ALONG 27N32W TO 18N47W SUPPORTING A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N24W ALONG 27N27W TO
27N36W. A CUTOFF UPPER LOW IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC JUST E OF
BARBADOS AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. DIFFLUNCE ALOFT
TO THE SE OF THIS UPPER LOW IS ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE W ATLC SURFACE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY E INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC BY LATE WED. THE WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD MODESTLY W THROUGH FRI AND GRADUALLY
LIFT N TO 29N BY SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net