[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUN 09 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W/41W FROM 11N
SOUTHWARD MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A
MODEST GLOBAL MODEL INDICATED 700 MB TROUGH THAT IS BETWEEN 36W
AND 42W...AND AN 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM THAT IS ALONG
THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 7N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 2S TO 7N BETWEEN 39W AND 47W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 13N54W 9N56W...INTO
NORTHEASTERN GUYANA NEAR 5N58W. THE WAVE MIRRORS A 700 MB TROUGH
ALOFT...WITH ENHANCEMENT TO THE NORTHWEST FROM A MID-LATITUDE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE WEST SLIGHTLY AHEAD
OF THE PROPAGATING WAVE ENERGY. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 7N TO 10N
BETWEEN 49W AND 54W.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W/83W FROM 17N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 5 TO 10 KT. THE WAVE POSITION WAS
MOVED TO THIS POSITION IN ORDER TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH MODEL
DIAGNOSTICS AND HOVMULLER DIAGRAMS. EARLIER ANALYSES OF THIS
WAVE MOVED THE WAVE WESTWARD AT COMPARATIVELY TOO FAST A PACE.
THE WESTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE WAVE HAS BEEN COMPARATIVELY SLOWER
IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM PANAMA TO 16N BETWEEN
78W AND 82W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL
NEAR 16N17W TO 13N19W 7N21W AND 6N24W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
6N24W TO 2N47W...AND INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1N53W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 2S41W 4N47W 10N52W.
NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM
14N13W TO 9N15W FROM SENEGAL TO THE COASTAL WATERS OF GUINEA.
ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD FROM 40W EASTWARD.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 23N NORTHWARD FROM 93W EASTWARD.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 93W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG DEVELOPED IN THE COASTAL PLAINS/COASTAL WATERS
OF THE U.S.A. BETWEEN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND LOUISIANA...IN
FLORIDA ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST AND FROM 26N TO 29N...AND
ALONG THE GULF OF MEXICO SIDE OF NORTHWESTERN CUBA BETWEEN 80W
AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1017 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N74W...ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...
TO A GULF OF MEXICO 1015 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
27N95W.

GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS
THE BASIN THAT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY.
THEREAFTER...S-SE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE INTO MODERATE
TO FRESH BREEZE LEVELS AS THE RIDGE HOLDS AND AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS ON FRIDAY.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 12N77W.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN
SEA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS...TOWARD THE OPEN
WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEYOND 24N69W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER
AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM 72W
EASTWARD. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS
FROM HISPANIOLA TO 16N74W AND TO 11N74W AT THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W/83W FROM 17N SOUTHWARD. PLEASE
REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN PORT-AU-
PRINCE IN HAITI. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS
CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVER BARAHONA AND SANTO
DOMINGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. FEW
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA
CANA. RAINSHOWERS ARE AROUND SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL EXTEND
FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHEASTWARD.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT EAST-TO-
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL INFLUENCE
THIS WIND FLOW. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT
EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT
48 HOURS. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL
START NEAR 20N68W...IT WILL MOVE TO 23N75W AT 24 HOURS...AND IT
WILL END UP BEING NEAR 27N78W BY THE END OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 35N60W. A
TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TOWARD THE
BAHAMAS. LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD FROM 60W WESTWARD. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ALONG 30N61W 27N65W 26N71W. EARLIER WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN DISSIPATING.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED DEBRIS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY
REMNANT RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE AREA THAT IS BOUNDED BY THE POINTS
FROM 30N55W TO 21N64W TO 22N78W TO 30N60W TO 30N55W.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 32N26W TO 29N33W...TO A 23N42W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 17N50W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N25W
28N31W 28N39W.

MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND
THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 6N IN VENEZUELA TO 17N BETWEEN 54W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 66W. THIS CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS IN
AN AREA OF COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 30N43W...TO 23N60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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