[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101743
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 04N43W TO 13N44W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A GLOBAL MODEL INDICATED 700 MB TROUGH
BETWEEN 42W-48W AND FOLLOWED TO THE EAST BY A LOW-LEVEL WIND
MAXIMUM FROM 06N-12N. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
REMAINS LARGELY CONFINED TO THE ITCZ REGION FROM THE EQUATOR TO
08N BETWEEN 36W-50W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 06N61W TO 13N57W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE MIRRORS A 700 MB TROUGH ALOFT...WITH ENHANCEMENT TO THE
NORTHWEST FROM A MID-LATITUDE MID-LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS
CONTINUED TO MOVE WEST SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE PROPAGATING WAVE
ENERGY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N-13N BETWEEN
55W-61W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO
10N19W TO 07N23W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 07N23W TO 03N42W TO 02N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-11N BETWEEN 17W-24W...AND FROM 05N-08N
BETWEEN 46W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE EASTERN GULF WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE NEAR 31N86W SW TO A BROAD BASE OVER THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL REGION. WHILE A RELATIVELY WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS
ACROSS THE BASIN...MID-LEVEL ENERGY CONTINUES TO ADVECT
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF GENERATING INCREASED
CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 22N E OF
90W. THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION IS NOTED ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS N OF 29N. OTHERWISE...
THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE
RIDGE WHICH CONTINUES TO BE SUPPORTED ALOFT BY RELATIVELY DRIER
NW FLOW. LIGHT TO GENTLE S-SE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE BY
THURSDAY INTO MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE LEVELS AS THE RIDGE HOLDS
AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.
PLAINS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN
BASIN W OF 70W THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 10N78W NE TO 20N62W AND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. MARGINAL MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE AND THE PRESENCE OF A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM
THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N88W TO 20N86W IS PROVIDING FOCUS
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A
LINE FROM 11N79W TO 21N84W WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION
OCCURRING S OF 15N. TO THE EAST...THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN E
OF 70W IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THIS FLOW IS VERY DRY AND PROVIDING A
STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND MOSTLY FAIR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. FRESH
TO STRONG TRADES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NW
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THURSDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...ONLY A FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND FAIR SKIES PREVAILING THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ARE NOTED...PEAK DAYTIME
HEATING AND INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING NE OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND PORTIONS OF THE SW NORTH ATLC. WHILE WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC...THE MID-LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 26N-31N BETWEEN 75W-79W.
FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N70W THAT
SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 31N58W SW TO 24N73W.
WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING A LARGER AREA OF
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE FROM 21N-30N BETWEEN 55W-70W.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN
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