[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUN 08 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR
33W MOVING W AT APPROXIMATELY 15 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE
WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT THAT ALONG WITH
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITS AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR
50W MOVING W AT APPROXIMATELY 15 KT. THE WAVE IS MOSTLY EMBEDDED
IN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT EXCEPT N OF 08N WHERE DRY AIR
AND DUST ARE PRESENT AS INDICATED BY METEOSAT IMAGERY.
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT W OF ITS AXIS SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 04N TO 07N.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR 76W
EXTENDING S OF 15N TO INLAND COLOMBIA...MOVING W AT
APPROXIMATELY 20 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED
IN A DEEP MOIST ENVIRONMENT S OF 13N. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE S OF 14N BETWEEN 73W AND 80W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR 83W
MOVING W AT APPROXIMATELY 15 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE
IS EMBEDDED IN A DEEP MOIST ENVIRONMENT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE S OF 15N W OF 80W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO
05N25W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
05N25W TO E OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 04N32W...IT THEN RESUMES W
OF THE WAVE NEAR 03N35W TO 02N49W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES MENTIONED IN THE SECTION ABOVE
...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 230 NM S
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE WESTERN ATLC SW
ACROSS THE FLORIDA TO A BASE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. WEST OF
90W...THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO COVERS THE REMAINDER GULF. THE
TROUGH ALOFT ALONG SHALLOW MOISTURE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND ADJACENT WATERS SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS E OF 85W.
AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE NW ATLC EXTENDS
A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE GULF AND PROVIDES E TO SE WIND FLOW
OF 10 TO 15 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT OVER WESTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA ADJACENT WATERS WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
22N89W TO 17N91W. WATER VAPOR AND SSMI TPW IMAGERY DEPICT DRY
AND STABLE AIR ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN THAT CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE
BASIN THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

SSMI TPW IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE ON THE SW
AND PORTIONS OF THE NW CARIBBEAN WHERE A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT
ALOFT CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 15N
BETWEEN 80W AND 87W...INCLUDING CUBA. ON THE SW CARIBBEAN...TWO
TROPICAL WAVES ENHANCES SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS.
SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN SURFACE RIDGING ON THE ATLC AND LOWER
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVES SUPPORT E WINDS OF 20 TO 25
KT S OF 14.5N BETWEEN 68W AND 74W...EXCEPT NE WINDS W OF 71.5W
WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. TRADES OF 15 KT DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH
WED MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...

CLOUDINESS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND
BEING SUPPORTED BY MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A ZONE OF
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS
A DRY AIRMASS MOVES FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE WESTERN ATLC SW
ACROSS THE FLORIDA TO A BASE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THUS
SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 28N69W TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS
NEAR 20N74W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS
ARE N OF 20N BETWEEN 64W AND 77W. BROAD SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED
BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 32N43W COVERS THE REMAINDER BASIN
SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. FOR INFORMATION ABOUT TROPICAL
WAVES...PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE. SURFACE TROUGHING
ALONG WITH SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL ON THE SW N ATLC FOR THE NEXT
TWO DAYS. RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR
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