[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 081758
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUN 08 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W/32W FROM 14N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. THIS POSITION IS BASED
ON LONG-TERM SATELLITE IMAGERY AND TPW DATA. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W/52W FROM 11N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 6N TO
8N BETWEEN 50W AND 58W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W FROM 16N SOUTHWARD...
MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 9N TO 13N BETWEEN 77W AND
80W...AND FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 82W AND THE NICARAGUA COAST/
COASTAL PLAINS. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 82W
AND 84W. TWO TROPICAL WAVES WERE INCLUDED IN THE SURFACE MAP
ANALYSIS FOR 08/0600 UTC. IT WAS DECIDED TO ANALYZE ONLY ONE
TROPICAL WAVE AT 08/1200 UTC...BASED ON TPW DATA...700 MB
WIND FIELDS...AND LONG-TERM SATELLITE IMAGERY.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA
NEAR 10N14W...TO 7N17W...TO 8N27W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 2N BETWEEN
35W AND 40W. THE 31W/32W TROPICAL WAVE BREAKS UP THE WIND FLOW
OF EACH FEATURE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 15W AND 19W...AND FROM 4N
TO 6N BETWEEN 20W AND 22W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
IS WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 5N25W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 60W WESTWARD...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 34N65W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 29N72W...ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CUBA...TO THE
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...THAT IS APPARENT IN
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...IS WITHIN 400 NM TO 500 NM TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE TROUGH...IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 23N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 86W EASTWARD...FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 86W
AND 90W...FROM 25N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 90W AND 95W...AND FROM 19N
TO 26N BETWEEN 95W AND TEXAS AND MEXICO.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THIS TROUGH IS DIURNAL IN NATURE...AND IT GENERALLY
MOVES WESTWARD WITH TIME DURING THE MORNING HOURS...UNTIL
FINALLY DISSIPATING AROUND 1800 UTC ON THE AVERAGE.

A 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS IN COASTAL LOUISIANA NEAR
30N93W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AWAY FROM THE TWO SURFACE TROUGHS. A SURFACE RIDGE
PASSES THROUGH 32N78W...ACROSS NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 29N87W...TO THE
1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT KBQX AND KIPN.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING IN TEXAS...IN HARLINGEN AND
PORT ISABEL AND AT THE ELLINGTON AIRPORT IN HOUSTON...IN
LOUISIANA...IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND
AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTH...IN GULFPORT
MISSISSIPPI AND IN MOBILE ALABAMA...IN FLORIDA IN PERRY AND IN
NAPLES.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W FROM 16N SOUTHWARD...
MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THIS FEATURE.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. MIDDLE LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW IS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE...THAT IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY..
IS IN THE AREA OF THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...IN THE COASTAL WATERS FROM THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THIS AREA.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
08/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 1.73 IN
TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING ON TOP OF MIDDLE
LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW...AS THE TWO DIFFERENT WIND
REGIMES CROSS HISPANIOLA.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 28N70W...ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS NEAR MAYAGUANA AND GREAT INAGUA...INTO
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OF THIS SURFACE TROUGH. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 63W
AND 68W. ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN
HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND OTHER LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...WITH SOME
NEARBY RAINSHOWERS ABOUT ONE HOUR AGO...IN BARAHONA. SCATTERED
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN SANTO DOMINGO AND IN LA
ROMANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO
PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW WITH A RIDGE WILL PASS DIRECTLY ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT
SOUTHEAST-TO-SOUTH WIND FLOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA
FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN ATLANTIC
OCEAN NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE THAT REACHES
HISPANIOLA FIRST...AND THEN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...AND
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...WITH TIME. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB
SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA
FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START NEAR 21N62W. IT WILL MOVE TO
21N67W AT THE END OF THE FIRST 24 HOURS. THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER
WILL END UP BEING NEAR 23N75W BY THE END OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 21N52W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 16N TO 28N BETWEEN 48W AND 63W.
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 43W AND 60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 27N TO 28N BETWEEN 54W AND 56W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N28W TO
28N30W...REACHING A 25N40W MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 20N44W...TO A SECOND CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 13N57W...INTO NORTHEASTERN
VENEZUELA NEAR 9N63W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 16N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT
PASSES THROUGH 32N24W 31N30W BEYOND 32N36W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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