[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON JUN 08 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR
32W MOVING W AT APPROXIMATELY 15 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE
WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT THAT ALONG WITH
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITS AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR
48W MOVING W AT APPROXIMATELY 15 KT. THE WAVE IS MOSTLY EMBEDDED
IN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT EXCEPT N OF 7N WHERE DRY AIR AND
DUST ARE PRESENT AS INDICATED BY METEOSAT IMAGERY. DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT W OF ITS AXIS SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
04N TO 06N W OF 48W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR 75W
EXTENDING S OF 16N TO INLAND COLOMBIA...MOVING W AT
APPROXIMATELY 20 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED
IN A LOW TO MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT N OF 12N. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE S OF 12N BETWEEN 73W AND 79W
COINCIDING WITH A REGION OF DEEP MOISTURE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR 82W
MOVING W AT APPROXIMATELY 5 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE
IS EMBEDDED IN A DEEP MOIST ENVIRONMENT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE S OF 14N W OF 79W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N16W TO
07N25W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
07N25W TO E OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 08N31W...IT THEN RESUMES W
OF THE WAVE NEAR 03N35W TO 02N48W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES MENTIONED IN THE SECTION ABOVE
...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N TO 05N BETWEEN 18W
AND 24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE WESTERN ATLC SW
ACROSS THE FLORIDA TO A BASE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. WEST OF
90W...THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO COVERS THE REMAINDER GULF. THE
TROUGH ALOFT ALONG SHALLOW MOISTURE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND ADJACENT WATERS SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS E OF 85W. AT THE
SURFACE...A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE NW ATLC EXTENDS A
RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE GULF TO A 1015 MB HIGH NEAR 29N93W.
SURFACE RIDGING IS PROVIDING E TO SE WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT
INCREASING TO 20 KT OVER WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA ADJACENT
WATERS WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N89W TO 17N92W.
WATER VAPOR AND SSMI TPW IMAGERY DEPICT DRY AND STABLE AIR
ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN THAT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN THE NEXT TWO TO
THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

SSMI TPW IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE ON THE SW
AND PORTIONS OF THE NW CARIBBEAN WHERE A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT
ALOFT CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 15N
BETWEEN 77W AND 87W...INCLUDING CUBA. ON THE SW CARIBBEAN...TWO
TROPICAL WAVES ENHANCES SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS.
SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN SURFACE RIDGING ON THE ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVES SUPPORT E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT S OF
14.5N BETWEEN 68W AND 74W...EXCEPT NE WINDS W OF 71.5W WITH SEAS
TO 8 FT. TRADES OF 15 KT DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN BUT CONVECTION IS
STILL EXPECTED E OF ITS AXIS AFFECTING THE W-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...

CLOUDINESS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND
BEING SUPPORTED BY MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A ZONE OF
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS
A DRY AIRMASS MOVES FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE WESTERN ATLC SW
ACROSS THE FLORIDA TO A BASE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THUS
SUPPORTING A 1016 MB LOW NEAR 26N72W WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH FROM
28N70W TO THE THE LOW TO 21N75W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE N OF 20N BETWEEN 56W AND 77W. BROAD
SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 31N42W COVERS
THE REMAINDER BASIN SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. FOR INFORMATION
ABOUT THE TROPICAL WAVES...PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE.
SURFACE TROUGHING ALONG WITH SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL ON THE SW N
ATLC THE NEXT TWO DAYS. RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net