[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 072344
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN JUN 07 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N28W TO 05N31W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BROAD 700 MB TROUGH THAT REMAINS
N OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 20W-30W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-10N BETWEEN 27W-31W.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N45W TO 01N50W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
THIS WAVE IS IN AN AREA OF STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR WHICH IS
INHIBITING ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION AT THIS TIME.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N72W TO 06N75W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
TPW IMAGERY DEPICTS A MOIST ENVIRONMENT SURROUNDING THIS WAVE.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE PART OF THE
WAVE OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 07N-11N BETWEEN 73W-75W.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N80W TO 04N81W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT SURROUNDING
THIS WAVE SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE WAVE AFFECTING PANAMA
AND THE EPAC MAINLY S OF 10N BETWEEN 77W-83W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W TO
06N17W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
THAT POINT TO 06N30W THEN RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR
04N32W TO 02N49W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 30W...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
03N-05N BETWEEN 19W-24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS REMAINS TO THE E OF THE BASIN
PRODUCING NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GULF BETWEEN THE TROUGHING
AND AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS PREVAILING ACROSS THE
AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK 1016 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR
28N95W SUPPORTING A LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. TO THE E...A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS 30N86W TO 27N88W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED N OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT WATERS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT
FOR THE SURFACE RIDGE TO GRADUALLY DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF LIGHT TO GENTLE E-SE BREEZE CONDITIONS PREVAILING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN INTO TUESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN. A
DIFFLUENT FLOW PREVAILS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE W AND CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE BASIN INCLUDING JAMAICA...NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS MAINLY N OF
11N BETWEEN 75W-86W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N82W TO
16N87W AS A REFLECTION OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS. TO THE E...ASIDE FROM THE TROPICAL WAVES MOVING
ACROSS THE BASIN...THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER SOUTH
AMERICA. A BROAD AREA OF SAHARAN DUST IS ALSO PREVAILING ACROSS
THE E CARIBBEAN MAINLY E OF 67W INHIBITING CONVECTION ACROSS
PUERTO RICO AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS
LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN EXCEPT S OF 14N
BETWEEN 68W-74W WHERE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN BUT
CONVECTION IS STILL EXPECTED E OF ITS AXIS AFFECTING THE
W-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...

THE PROXIMITY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE
ISLAND...MAINLY ACROSS THE NW PORTION. EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTING
A 1008 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 43N56W. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW CENTER THROUGH 30N76W. S OF THIS
FRONT...A WEAK 1014 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED E OF THE BAHAMAS
NEAR 26N75W. A SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM THIS LOW THROUGH
31N62W. SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS E OF THE
SURFACE LOW N OF 26N AND BETWEEN 57W-75W. A BROAD SURFACE HIGH
AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E ATLANTIC. THE
SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 31N43W. A LIGHT TO GENTLE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE
WHOLE BASIN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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