[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 071740
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN JUN 07 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 06N28W TO 15N26W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BROAD 700 MB TROUGH THAT REMAINS
LARGELY NORTH OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 24W-32W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS CONFINED WITHIN THE ITCZ REGION FROM 05N-
09N BETWEEN 23W-33W DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER
NORTH OF 09N.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 01N48W TO 09N44W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
THE WAVE REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW-AMPLITUDE AND COINCIDES WITH A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS INDICATING MAXIMUM 850 MB RELATIVE
VORTICITY IN THE VICINITY OF 04N48W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
IS OCCURRING WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 06N69W TO 15N68W MOVING W AT 20-25
KT. SUBTLE GLOBAL MODEL INDICATED 700 MB TROUGHING IS NOTED
BETWEEN 65W-72W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN VENEZUELA AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA FROM
05N-10N BETWEEN 69W-74W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 04N77W TO 13N78W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE IS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WHILE
CONTINUING TO MOVE WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
CENTRAL ATLC MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 21N58W. THE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS WESTWARD ALONG 18N/19N TO THE W-SW NEAR JAMAICA.
MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS LIKELY TO ENTER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC REGION IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MEANWHILE...
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N-12N BETWEEN 75W-
81W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING SOUTH OF PANAMA FROM 03N-08N BETWEEN 77W-80W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W TO
09N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
09N20W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 50W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 03N-09N BETWEEN 21W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS LIES TO THE EAST OF THE BASIN
PRODUCING NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN THIS AFTERNOON
BETWEEN THE TROUGHING AND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTER OVER
MEXICO NEAR 24N103W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AND
STABLE AIR ALOFT IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
THE ANTICYCLONE ALOFT SUPPORTS A RELATIVELY WEAK 1016 MB HIGH
CENTERED ACROSS THE NW GULF NEAR 27N93W. A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN
THE RIDGING IS INDICATED BY THE PRESENCE OF A SURFACE TROUGH
ANALYZED FROM 26N89W TO 29N86W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED IN
THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH PROVIDING FOCUS FOR A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH-
CENTRAL GULF N OF 25N BETWEEN 85W-92W. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH MONDAY
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE E-SE BREEZE CONDITIONS PREVAILING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN INTO TUESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ASIDE FROM THE TROPICAL WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE BASIN...MUCH OF
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STABLE NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 22N64W.
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY E
OF 74W AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SUPPORTS A SOUTHWESTERN
EXTENSION OF SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC.
TO THE WEST...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE SW
NORTH ATLC OFFSHORE OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SW TO A BASE OVER
GUATEMALA NEAR 17N90W. WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING NEARLY COINCIDES
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS HOWEVER MOST OF THE ACTIVE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN THE AREA OF MAXIMUM MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO THE EAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
STRETCH FROM EASTERN CUBA TO ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA WITHIN
A 120 NM SWATH FROM 21N77W TO 15N83W TO 11N83W. OTHERWISE...
GENERALLY FRESH TO MODERATE TRADES ARE EXPECTED S OF 18N E OF
82W STRENGTHENING SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS BY MONDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON WHILE MOST
OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER REMAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA
AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE CONVECTION IS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM WESTERN CUBA
TO A BASE OVER GUATEMALA THAT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA THROUGH TUESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE WESTERN NORTH
ATLC AND SW NORTH ATLC REGIONS WITH AXIS STRETCHING FROM EAST OF
NOVA SCOTIA CANADA S-SW TO 30N78W TO OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
NEAR 21N86W. THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS A RELATIVELY BROAD AREA OF
SURFACE TROUGHING HIGHLIGHTED BY A 1008 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR
41N58W AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW TO 36N64W TO
31N74W. WHILE MOST OF THE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS REMAIN N
OF 30N...A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGH BOUNDARIES PREVAIL IN THE
DISCUSSION WATERS. THE FIRST IS TO THE SE OF THE COLD FRONT FROM
33N68W TO 29N73W WITH THE SECOND AND MORE SUBSTANTIAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM 31N63W INTO A 1013 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 27N74W
THEN SW TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 23N80W. GIVEN THE SURFACE
BOUNDARIES IN PLACE AND AMPLE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
MAXIMIZED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 23N-32N BETWEEN 62W-76W.
ANOTHER AREA OF SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FARTHER EAST OCCURRING
FROM 26N-32N BETWEEN 50W-60W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N35W AND A 1028
MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N43W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN
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