[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 062340
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT JUN 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS AT ABOUT 500 NM W OF GUINEA EXTENDING FROM
12N24W TO 05N26W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
IS NOTED WITH THIS WAVE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF SAHARAN DUST
AROUND IT.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM 09N40W
TO 03N42W MOVING W AT 20 KT. THIS WAVE IS ALSO SURROUNDED BY
SAHARAN DUST WHICH IS INHIBITING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N58W TO 03N55W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED IN GLOBAL MODEL ANALYSES BETWEEN
48W-60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-11N BETWEEN
51W-59W.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INTO SOUTH
AMERICA FROM 15N70W TO 08N73W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS OVER NORTH COLOMBIA AND NORTH
VENEZUELA S 0F 11N BETWEEN 70W-76W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 11N15W TO 08N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE
ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N20W TO 06N25W...THEN RESUMING W OF A
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 06N26W TO 05N40W...THEN ONCE AGAIN RESUMING W
OF ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 03N44W TO 00N50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS N OF THE PORTION OF THE ITCZ LOCATED
OVER N BRAZIL FROM 02N-06N AND W OF 46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN GULF COVERING THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH AXIS ALONG 84W. THE ACTIVE WEATHER
ASSOCIATED TO THIS FEATURE REMAINS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC AND W CARIBBEAN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
DEPICTS A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS PREVAILING ACROSS THE BASIN. A
STATIONARY 1017 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 28N95W. WITH
THIS...A GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OBSERVED IN SCATTEROMETER
DATA ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN WITH FAIR WEATHER.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE EXTENDS S REACHING THE
CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 83W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
PREVAILS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE BASIN W OF 77W AFFECTING
THE ISLANDS OF CUBA AND JAMAICA ALSO. THE INSTITUTE OF
METEOROLOGY IN CUBA REPORTED 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS RANGING
BETWEEN 3 TO 5 INCHES MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
ISLAND. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
DEPICTED ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...WITH STRONGEST ACTIVITY OVER W
NICARAGUA. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ALSO DEPICTED ACROSS CENTRAL
HISPANIOLA. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN E OF 77W REMAINS
CONVECTION FREE AS A MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR
PREVAILS. LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES ARE DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER
DATA ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO DRIFT E ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS
THE W AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE ISLAND...WHICH WILL WEAKEN QUICKLY THIS EVENING. ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS WELL AS THE PROBABILITY
OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN WILL DRIFT E
APPROACHING HAITI WITH CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA
WITH AXIS ALONG 83W. TO THE W OF THIS AXIS...DIFFLUENT FLOW IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC W
OF 57W. A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 37N69W WITH
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TH31N68W TO 24N79W. A
BROAD 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N41W EXTENDS ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH FAIR WEATHER. FOR INFORMATION
ABOUT THE TROPICAL WAVES...PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS
THE E GULF TO DRIFT E ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE W AND
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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