[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 061749
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUN 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 06N23W TO 14N21W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BROAD 700 MB TROUGH THAT REMAINS
LARGELY NORTH OF THE ITCZ AXIS. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
NOTED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE
SAHARAN AIR LAYER TO THE NORTH.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 03N39W TO 09N38W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS LOW-AMPLITUDE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE
SAHARAN AIR LAYER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE AND
AREAS OF THE EASTERN ATLC TO THE NORTHEAST. AS A RESULT...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ REGION
FROM 03N-07N BETWEEN 29W-47W. PERHAPS CONVECTION WITHIN CLOSER
PROXIMITY...BETWEEN 35W-42W...IS RELATED TO THE PRESENCE OF THE
WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 04N51W TO 11N57W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED IN GLOBAL MODEL ANALYSES BETWEEN
48W-60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-09N BETWEEN
48W-59W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N71W TO 17N68W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE IS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WHILE
CONTINUING TO MOVE WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
CENTRAL ATLC MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 21N54W. THE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS WESTWARD ALONG 20N TO THE W-SW TO NEAR JAMAICA.
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA
IS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS RESULTING IN A LACK
OF ANY SIGNIFICANT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N16W TO
05N30W TO 04N39W TO 01N50W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
03N-07N BETWEEN 29W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGRESSING SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE
FAR EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
30N82W TO 19N86W. MOST OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING HAS MOVED EAST OF THE BASIN...AS UPPER
LEVEL NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATE THIS FLOW IS DRY AND STABLE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A
SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION NEAR
30N83W TO 25N83W TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 21N86W IS PROVIDING
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 25N E OF 87W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE NW GULF WATERS NEAR
27N94W. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH SUNDAY AND GRADUALLY DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF THROUGH MONDAY WITH GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE E-SE BREEZE
CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ASIDE FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 70W...MUCH OF THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STABLE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 10N80W NE TO 22N70W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS INCREASES FARTHER WEST WITHIN A ZONE OF
MAXIMIZED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EAST OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE FAR EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. THE BASE OF THE TROUGHING IS
CURRENTLY OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND NW CARIBBEAN. GIVEN THE
AMPLE DYNAMICS IN PLACE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING FROM 14N-21N BETWEEN 75W-85W. ANOTHER AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN
FROM 09N-12N BETWEEN 76W-81W. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY FRESH TO
MODERATE TRADES ARE EXPECTED S OF 18N E OF 82W THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL WITH THE APPROACH OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FAR EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE STRONGER CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AT THIS TIME...
ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS WELL AS THE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS
THE TROUGHING APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
WITH A SHORTWAVE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN THE VICINITY OF
24N80W. THIS TROUGHING AND SHORTWAVE REMAINS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT
OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM OFFSHORE OF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST S-SW TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THAT SUPPORTS A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC AND SW NORTH
ATLC AREAS. A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST NEAR 36N71W THAT SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM
THE LOW CENTER TO 32N71W TO 27N73W TO 25N79W. GIVEN THAT MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS MAXIMIZED WITH THE SHORTWAVE OVER
THE FLORIDA STRAITS...A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 70W-81W. THE BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE FRONTAL TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN N OF 25N BETWEEN 62W-78W ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SW NORTH ATLC. FARTHER EAST...ANOTHER AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 23N-37N BETWEEN
60W-67W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 30N38W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN
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