[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN JUN 07 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR
27W MOVING W AT APPROXIMATELY 15 TO 20 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW
LOW MOISTURE ON THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT COINCIDING WITH A
REGION OF DRY AIR AND DUST DEPICTED BY METEOSAT IMAGERY.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO THE REGION OF THE
ITCZ FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 26W AND 30W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR
44W MOVING W AT APPROXIMATELY 15 TO 20 KT. THE WAVE IS MOSTLY
EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE TO HIGH MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH SOME DRY
AIR IN THE NORTHERN REGION AS INDICATED BY METEOSAT SAL IMAGERY.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N W OF 42W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER VENEZUELA WITH AXIS NEAR 65W EXTENDING
INTO THE CARIBBEAN BASIN S OF 15N...MOVING W AT APPROXIMATELY 5
KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A LOW TO
MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT. THERE IS NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE OVER THE CARIBBEAN.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR 73W.
SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM
AHEAD OF ITS AXIS BEING SUPPORTED BY A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT
ALOFT.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 11N15W TO 08N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE
ZONE AXIS BEGINS NEAR 08N21W AND CONTINUES TO EAST OF A TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 06N26W. IT THEN RESUMES WEST OF THE WAVE NEAR 06N29W
TO 04N42W AND FROM 03N46W TO 02N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN 18W AND 21W. FOR
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES SEE SECTION ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE EASTERN U.S
SEABOARD SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA AND YUCATAN PENINSULA TO A BASE
JUST N OF HONDURAS. THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO COVERS THE REMAINDER
GULF. THE TROUGH ALOFT SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE
WESTERN FLORIDA COAST FROM 30N83W TO 27N82W TO 25N81W WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 27N E OF 83W. OTHERWISE...A 1015
MB HIGH IS LOCATED ON THE NW BASIN NEAR 28N92W PROVIDING
VARIABLE WIND OF 5 TO 10 KT N OF 26N W OF 90W. E TO NE WIND FLOW
OF 5 TO 15 KT IS ELSEWHERE. WATER VAPOR AND SSMI TPW IMAGERY
DEPICT DRY AND STABLE AIR ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN THAT
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE
ACROSS THE BASIN THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

SSMI TPW IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE ON THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND PORTIONS OF THE NW BASIN ASSOCIATED WITH A
FORMER SURFACE TROUGH THAT SUPPORTED HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS CUBA
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING ALONG THE EASTERN U.S SEABOARD S-SW TO A BASE JUST N
OF HONDURAS ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 17N BETWEEN 75W AND 82W. OTHERWISE...TWO
TROPICAL WAVES EXTENDS TO THE SW AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. SEE TROPICAL
WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. TRADES OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE S OF
13N BETWEEN 67W AND 71.5W WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. TRADES OF 10
TO 15 KT DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE NW
CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS THE UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH DRIFTS EAST AND THE TROPICAL WAVES CONTINUE TO MOVE
WEST.

...HISPANIOLA...

CLOUDINESS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND
BEING SUPPORTED BY MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THIS REGION OF
THE CARIBBEAN AND A ZONE OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS WELL AS THE PROBABILITY
OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO DRIFT
EAST.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE EASTERN U.S
SEABOARD SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA AND YUCATAN PENINSULA TO A BASE
JUST N OF HONDURAS. THE TROUGH ALOFT SUPPORT A 1013 MB LOW NEAR
25N73W FROM WHICH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NE TO 29N67W AND SW
TO 20N78W. TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER TROUGH...A RIDGE CENTERED NE
OF HISPANIOLA GENERATE A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 20N
BETWEEN 56W AND 79W. BROAD SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB
HIGH NEAR 31N44W COVERS THE REMAINDER BASIN SUPPORTING FAIR
WEATHER. FOR INFORMATION ABOUT THE TROPICAL WAVES...PLEASE REFER
TO THE SECTION ABOVE. SURFACE TROUGHING ALONG WITH SHOWERS WILL
PREVAIL ON THE SW N ATLC THE NEXT TWO DAYS. RIDGING WILL
DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR
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