[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 142359
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE IS CENTERED NEAR 42.5N 59.8W AT 14/2100
UTC MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 18 KT. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. THE MOST RECENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION OF CLAUDETTE
HAS BECOME SHALLOW AND DISORGANIZED AND THE CONVECTION IS TO THE
E-NE OF THE CENTER. CLAUDETTE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT. DISSIPATION
IS EXPECTED ON WED. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 16N30W TO 07N31W...MOVING W AT AROUND 15 KT OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
NOTED ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS BUT MAINLY FROM 10N-12N
BETWEEN 28W-32W DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF SAHARAN DUST N OF 13N.

A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 22N48 TO 10N49W...MOVING W AT 15 TO 20
KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. INVERTED-V LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE IS
OBSERVED IN SATELLITE PICTURES. A BROAD AREA OF SAHARAN DUST
SURROUNDS THE WAVE LIMITING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. MAINLY PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ARE NOTED RELATED
TO THIS FEATURE. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE W OF 55W EARLY WED
AFTERNOON...AND ENTER THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY THU
AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL BRING A MORE SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE WED
INTO THU...AND ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE UK/US VIRGIN ISLANDS
BY THU.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM HAITI TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND IS
MOVING W AT 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE IS WELL
DEPICTED IN THE MOISTURE PRODUCT...700 MB STREAMLINES AND LOW
LEVEL WINDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE NOTED ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT...AND ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN WED THROUGH THU NIGHT SLIGHTLY INCREASING THE TRADE
WIND FLOW.

A TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE SW
GULF OF MEXICO AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 22N91W TO ACROSS SE
MEXICO INTO THE EPAC TO NEAR 13N92W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING W AT 20
TO 25 KT AND SHOWS UP PRETTY WELL IN THE TPW PRODUCT AND 700 MB
STREAMLINES. CONVECTION HAS FLARED UP BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS OVER
PARTS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE AND SE MEXICO. THIS WAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD INTO THE EPAC REGION DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLC OCEAN THROUGH GUINEA BISSAU
THEN CONTINUES TO NEAR 10N28W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N32W TO
06N40W TO 07N50W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 08N59W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
TO NEAR 05N BETWEEN 17W AND 26W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75
NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 36W AND 43W...AND WITHIN 130 NM
BETWEEN 43W AND 48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1017 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF DOMINATES THE
REGION. THIS HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT AND A
RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE WEEK
MAINTAINING GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GULF...A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH
EVENING...SHIFT WESTWARD INTO THE SW GULF EACH NIGHT AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE SW GULF EACH MORNING SLIGHTLY INCREASING
WINDS AND SEAS. A TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO NEAR 28N89W. SCATTEROMETER AND SURFACE DATA CLEARLY
SHOW THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH THAT IS
PRODUCING SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. ALOFT...BROAD UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
ANCHORED OVER E TEXAS IS PRODUCING MAINLY A NE FLOW ACROSS THE
FLORIDA AND GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING OVER
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO UPPER
LEVEL FEATURES ARE HELPING TO INDUCE CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...SE MEXICO AND BELIZE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. PLEASE REFER TO
THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. HIGH PRES N OF THE
AREA COMBINED WITH THE COLOMBIAN/PANAMANIAN LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. THE PASSAGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL ALSO ENHANCE
THE TRADE WIND FLOW. ALOFT...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE WESTERN ATLC...ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THEN TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS WHILE A
RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. THE PRESENCE OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA COMBINED WITH THE DAYTIME
HEATING AND THE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE HAS HELPED THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS CUBA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS IS NOTED OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE WEST AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. LOW-TOPPED TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE OVER THE EASTERN
PART OF THE BASIN.

...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS. MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM
THE ISLAND TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE IS OVER THE NW ATLC. PLEASE SEE THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. TWO TROPICAL WAVES
ARE OVER THE TROPICAL NORTHERN ATLANTIC. PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL
WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. AS IT IS NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR...THE AZORES HIGH EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC FORECAST AREA TO SE FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER-LEVELS...A
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUPPORTS SOME CLUSTERS OF
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN AROUND 90 NM OF A LINE FROM 31N70W TO
22N76W. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LOCATED ON THE E PART OF THE
UPPER-TROUGH IS ALSO AFFECTING PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SE
BAHAMAS. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER
THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA AT LEAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  A
TROUGH...REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM 31N50W TO
30N56W. MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AXIS. ABUNDANT AFRICAN DUST IS OBSERVED ON THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER
TRACKING PRODUCT FROM CIMSS BETWEEN THE COAST OF AFRICA AND THE
LESSER ANTILLES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE
VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
GR
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