[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141801
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AS OF 1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE WAS NEAR
41.4N 61.3W...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 18 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 40N TO
44N BETWEEN 56W AND 66W. A CONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH
AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME POST TROPICAL BY TONIGHT
AND TO DISSIPATE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEE THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
15N29W TO 09N29W...MOVING W AT AROUND 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. DEEP MOISTURE IS S OF THE WAVE ALONG 13N WITH SAHARAN
DUST EMBEDDED IN THE WAVE N OF 13N. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 13N BETWEEN 28W AND 32W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 20N47W TO 07N47W...MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. MODERATE MOISTURE IS S OF 10 N ALONG THE WAVE WITH A
BROAD AREA OF SAHARAN DUST MIXED INTO THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT N OF
10N...INHIBITING CONVECTION ALONG THIS WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 18N70W TO 10N71W...MOVING W AT 20 TO 25 KT OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. MODERATE MOISTURE IS IN THIS WAVE
ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS PREVENTING
ANY DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THIS WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 20N93W TO THE EPAC NEAR 11N95W...MOVING W AT 20
TO 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. LOW TO MODERATE MOISTURE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE FROM MEXICO NORTHWARD. NO DEEP
CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH THIS WAVE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO
08N28W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 08N31W TO 07N46W THEN RESUMES W OF
A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 07N49W TO 07N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 12N BETWEEN THE AFRICAN COAST AND 27W.
SOME OF THIS CONVECTION MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A NEW TROPICAL
WAVE ABOUT TO EMERGE OFF OF WEST AFRICA. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS ANCHORED OVER E TEXAS WITH
THE SE PERIPHERY COVERING THE BASIN WITH NE FLOW ALOFT. MODERATE
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE NE FLOW AND A DEVELOPING SURFACE
TROUGH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NE GULF
FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 82W AND 88W. A 1015 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 25N91W SUPPORTS LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW W OF
89W. A TROUGH NORTH OF OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION SUPPORTS SW WINDS
AROUND 10 KT E OF 89W. EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. PLEASE REFER TO
THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. AN UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLC...ACROSS CUBA...AND TO HONDURAS.
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 13N TO 17N
BETWEEN 79W AND 84W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 13N W
OF 80W. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN IS INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION. AT THE SURFACE...TRADE
WINDS OF AROUND 10 KT COVERS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. 15 TO 20 KT
TRADE WINDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH A SMALL AREA
OF WINDS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE N OF THE COLOMBIA COAST. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER
HISPANIOLA AS A MODERATELY MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES ACROSS THE
ISLAND. ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
TODAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE TROPICAL NORTHERN ATLANTIC.
PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. AN
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N75W TO 22N80W. THIS TROUGH
SUPPORTS ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SW NORTHERN ATLC FROM 24N TO
31N BETWEEN 65W AND THE FL E COAST. THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT
NORTH OF OUR AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 29N TO 31N BETWEEN 45W AND 56W. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF OUR AREA IN THE EASTERN ATLC SUPPORTS
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
SUBTROPICAL ATLC. TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE IS OVER THE NW ATLC.
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE OVER THE SW N ATLC OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE
VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

LATTO/COBB
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