[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141037
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AS OF 0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE IS NEAR
40.1N 63.3W...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 17 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAIL
MODERATE FROM 40N-43N BETWEEN 57W-64W. A NE TO NNE MOTION WITH
SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO. WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE AND CLAUDETTE IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TONIGHT...AND TO
DISSIPATE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEE THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
15N27W TO 07N28W...MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED
WITH MODERATE MOIST AIRMASS ACCORDING TO SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. ENHANCED METEOSAT IMAGERY SHOW SOME DRY AIR AND
DUST IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT ALSO...WHICH IS LIMITING THE
CONVECTION TO ISOLATED MODERATE MAINLY S OF 12N BETWEEN 26-30W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 19N44W TO 07N45W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH SHALLOW MOIST AIR ACCORDING TO SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ENHANCED METEOSAT IMAGERY SHOW
EXTENSIVE SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST IN THE WAVE
ENVIRONMENT...WHICH IS INHIBITING CONVECTION AT THIS TIME.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 18N67W TO 10N68W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SSMI
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY DEPICTS LIGHT TO MODERATE
MOISTURE IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE. A STRONG DEEP-LAYER
WIND SHEAR ALSO PREVAILS ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN WHICH IS
INHIBITING ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 20N91W TO THE EPAC NEAR 11N93W...MOVING W AT 20-
25 KT. THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS THAT
PREVAILS ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AS DEPICTED IN SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 90W-93W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO
08N26W THEN RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 08N29W TO 08N35W.
THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 08N35W TO 08N43W THEN RESUMES W OF A
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 07N47W TO 07N58W. ASIDE THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E ATLANTIC...ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS WITHIN 100 NM N AND S OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS MAINLY E OF 35W AND NEAR THE ITCZ FROM 04N-
08N BETWEEN 50W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS ANCHORED OVER E TEXAS WITH
THE S PERIPHERY COVERING THE BASIN. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK 1015
MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 26N91W. WITH THIS...A LIGHT
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN. FAIR WEATHER
PREVAILS ACROSS THE W GULF WATERS WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED ACROSS THE E PORTION OF THE BASIN MAINLY E OF 90W. OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE SURFACE RIDGING TO PREVAIL.
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE
W ENTERING THE SOUTHERN GULF ENHANCING CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
BASIN. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXTENDS ACROSS CUBA REACHING
THE W CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH
AMERICA IS EXTENDING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN MAINLY E OF 80W. WITH
THESE FEATURES IN PLACE...A DIFFLUENT FLOW PREVAILS E OF THE
TROUGH SUPPORTING SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS E
CUBA...HISPANIOLA AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 74W-82W.
FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.
SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS MOST
OF THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT S OF 17N BETWEEN 72W-77W WHERE A
MODERATE TO FRESH WIND FLOW IS OBSERVED. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO CONTINUE MOVING W INCREASING THE
MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE W INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.

...HISPANIOLA...

ABUNDANT MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH
AN UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT BEING GENERATED BY THE
INTERACTION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE E OF 80W AND AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS OVER CENTRAL CUBA ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN.
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER THE ISLAND. SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

TWO TROPICAL WAVES WERE ANALYZED ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC.
PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE
INFORMATION. AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS THE W
ATLANTIC WITH AXIS ALONG 75W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED W OF 66W. TO THE E...A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED
NEAR 35N25W AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E ATLANTIC WITH
FAIR WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH TO WEAKEN HENCE DECREASING THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE
VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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