[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150533
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AS OF 0300 UTC...CLAUDETTE BECAME A POST TROPICAL CYCLONE
CENTERED NEAR 43.8N 57.8W MOVING NE AT 18 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY WEAK
CLAUDETTE WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION PREVAILING TO THE E OF ITS
CENTER. DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. SEE THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 17N31W TO 07N32W...MOVING W AT AROUND 15 KT OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. A SAHARAN AIRMASS PREVAILS IN THE ENVIRONMENT
OF THIS WAVE LIMITING THE CONVECTION TO ISOLATED ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 30W-33W.

A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 21N51W TO 10N51W...MOVING W AT 15 TO 20
KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. AN INVERTED-V LOW-LEVEL SIGNATURE IS
OBSERVED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.  MODERATE MOISTURE IS DEPICTED IN
TPW IMAGERY TO THE E OF THE WAVE AXIS. A BROAD AREA OF SAHARAN
DUST ALSO SURROUNDS THIS WAVE WHICH CONTINUES INHIBITING
CONVECTION. EXPECT FOR THIS WAVE TO ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND PUERTO RICO.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN HAITI TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA
FROM 20N72W TO 10N74W AND IS MOVING W AT 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE TPW PRODUCT...THE
700 MB STREAMLINES AND LOW-LEVEL WIND DATA. SCATTERED CONVECTION
PREVAILS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE AFFECTING
NORTHERN COLOMBIA. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED BETWEEN 15N-
20N AND ALONG 71W. EXPECT FOR THIS WAVE TO CONTINUE MOVING W
ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE SW
GULF OF MEXICO AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 23N92W INTO THE EPAC
NEAR 13N93W...MOVING W AT AROUND 20-25 KT. TPW IMAGERY DEPICTS
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO THE E OF THE WAVE AXIS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.  THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD INTO THE
EPAC REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH GUINEA
BISSAU THEN CONTINUES TO NEAR 10N28W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
08N33W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 06N55W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH WHILE
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 04N-07N BETWEEN
34W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1016 MB SURFACE HIGH LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF DOMINATES
THE BASIN. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT BUT  A
RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE WEEK
MAINTAINING GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GULF...A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. FOR
MORE DETAILS...PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE. SCATTEROMETER
DATA DEPICTS A LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILING ACROSS THE
BASIN. ALOFT...BROAD UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED OVER E
TEXAS IS PRODUCING MAINLY A NE FLOW ACROSS THE FLORIDA AND GULF
OF MEXICO. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING OVER THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO UPPER-LEVEL FEATURES
IS SUPPORTING THE CONVECTION OBSERVED OVER PARTS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND THE NORTHERN PORTION OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. PLEASE REFER TO
THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. THE COMBINATION OF
THE SURFACE HIGH THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND LOWER
PRESSURES ACROSS SOUTH AMERICA IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MAINLY S OF 16N BETWEEN 66W-
75W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS MODERATE TO GENTLE TRADES
PREVAILING ELSEWHERE. ALOFT...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE W ATLANTIC ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN. TO THE E OF THIS
FEATURE...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SOUTH AMERICA ACROSS
THE E CARIBBEAN. THESE FEATURES ARE GENERATING A DIFFLUENT FLOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHICH SUPPORTS CLOUDINESS AND
ISOLATED CONVECTION BETWEEN 73W-84W. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO
CONTINUE MOVING W WHILE THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE E
CARIBBEAN ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND
PUERTO RICO.

...HISPANIOLA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS CURRENTLY EXTENDING ACROSS HAITI WITH
ISOLATED CONVECTION E OF THE WAVE AXIS AFFECTING THE NORTHERN
COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.
EXPECT FOR THE WAVE TO CONTINUE MOVING W AWAY FROM THE ISLAND
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO
LOCAL EFFECTS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CLAUDETTE IS OVER THE NW ATLANTIC. PLEASE
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. TWO TROPICAL
WAVES ARE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL
WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. AS IT IS NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR...THE AZORES HIGH EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH FAIR WEATHER AS ABUNDANT AFRICAN DUST IS
OBSERVED ON THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER TRACKING PRODUCT FROM CIMSS
BETWEEN THE COAST OF AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. AT UPPER-
LEVELS...A TROUGH PREVAILS OVER THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTING
CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED CONVECTION BETWEEN 70W-75W. THIS TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE
VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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