[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT43 KNHC 132034
TCDAT3

TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032015
500 PM AST MON JUL 13 2015

Claudette is a sheared tropical cyclone, with the low-level center
exposed to the southwest of the main mass of deep convection.  The
current intensity estimate is held at 45 kt, well above the Dvorak
estimates, based on the earlier scatterometer data.  The numerical
guidance indicates that the cyclone will be affected by vertical
shear of greater than 30 kt over the next day or so, and this
should prevent significant strengthening.  Weakening should
commence tomorrow, and the system will likely become a
post-tropical cyclone in 36 hours or sooner.  Both the ECMWF and
GFS global models show the cyclone losing its identity in 48 hours,
so the official forecast shows dissipation at that time.

Claudette is beginning to accelerate and the motion estimate is now
045/15.  An additional increase in forward speed is expected as the
storm moves in the flow ahead of a mid-level trough near the Great
Lakes.  The official track forecast is similar to the previous one
and on the left side of the guidance envelope.  This is in best
agreement with the latest GFS and ECMWF solutions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/2100Z 38.1N  66.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  14/0600Z 39.9N  64.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  14/1800Z 42.6N  62.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  15/0600Z 45.7N  59.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  15/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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