[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT43 KNHC 140233
TCDAT3

TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032015
1100 PM AST MON JUL 13 2015

Claudette has not changed much in strength this evening.  The cloud
pattern remains asymmetric with all of the deep convection confined
to the northeast part of the circulation due to about 30 kt
of southwesterly shear.  Continued strong shear combined with much
colder water along the expected track should cause Claudette to lose
its tropical characteristics in 24 hours or less.  The global
models show the post-tropical low dissipating on Wednesday.

Satellite fixes indicate that the center of the storm is located to
the southeast of the previous track.  The latest initial motion
estimate is east-northeastward at 17 kt.  A turn to the northeast
or north-northeast is expected to occur on Tuesday, and that general
motion should continue until the storm dissipates.  The official
track forecast is adjusted to the right of the previous one and is
in best agreement with the GFS model.

The intensity and wind radii forecasts are based on guidance from
NOAA's Ocean Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/0300Z 38.9N  64.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  14/1200Z 40.6N  62.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  15/0000Z 43.2N  59.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  15/1200Z 46.3N  57.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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