[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT43 KNHC 131703
TCDAT3

TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032015
100 PM AST MON JUL 13 2015

The small low pressure area that moved off the coast of North
Carolina over the weekend has lost its frontal characteristics and
acquired organized deep convection overnight.  The convection,
albeit primarily over the eastern semicircle of the sheared system,
has persisted for more the 12 hours.  Recent ASCAT data indicated
that the cyclone has maximum winds of 40 to 45 kt and a well-defined
circulation.  Based on these data, advisories are being initiated on
Tropical Storm Claudette, the third tropical storm of the 2015
Atlantic hurricane season.

Claudette is expected to be a short-lived tropical cyclone since
it will be moving over much cooler waters and into an area of
increasing southwesterly shear tonight.  The cyclone could
strengthen slightly in the very near term, but is expected to
weaken later tonight and become post-tropical shortly thereafter.
The post-tropical cyclone is forecast to dissipate within 2 to 3
days as it accelerates northeastward. The global models are in good
agreement, and the NHC track forecast is near the middle of the
tightly clustered guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/1700Z 37.4N  68.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  14/0000Z 38.5N  66.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  14/1200Z 41.0N  64.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  15/0000Z 43.9N  61.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  15/1200Z 47.2N  58.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net