[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 100604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC WITH AXIS APPROXIMATELY
ALONG 30W...MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY DEPICT THIS WAVE AT THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF
MAINLY MODERATE MOISTURE FROM 03N-21N. ENHANCED METEOSAT IMAGERY
SHOW SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT...WHICH IS
INHIBITING CONVECTION AT THIS TIME.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS
APPROXIMATELY ALONG 57W...MOVING W AT AROUND 15 KT. SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY DEPICT THIS WAVE IS MAINLY EMBEDDED
IN A DRY ENVIRONMENT. ENHANCED METEOSAT IMAGERY SHOW SAHARAN DRY
AIR AND DUST IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT...WHICH INHIBIT CONVECTION
AT THIS TIME.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 19N85W...ACROSS E HONDURAS...E NICARAGUA AND
COSTA RICA....MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY DEPICTS
MODERATE MOIST AIR IN THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHILE HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT IS TO THE S-SE OF ITS AXIS. A DIVERGENT
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT ALONG CENTRAL AMERICA SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS
IN THE NW CARIBBEAN S OF 20N W OF 84W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS S OF 15N.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 19N16W TO
12N21W TO 08N29W TO 08N36W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 08N36W AND
CONTINUES TO 09N55W. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 06N TO 17N E OF 25W AND FROM 07N TO 12N BETWEEN 37W AND
56W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO EPAC
COASTAL WATERS COVERS THE WESTERN GULF W OF 93W...THE CENTRAL
AND SE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WHILE DIFFLUENT FLOW
DOMINATES ACROSS THE NE GULF. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY SHOW MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE AND EASTERN GULF. DIFFLUENT FLOW W OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC SUPPORT
SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 21N. OTHERWISE...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING HOLD ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB CENTER NEAR
29N85W. N TO NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN
89W AND 92W WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. E TO SE WINDS OF 15 KT
DOMINATE ELSEWHERE EXCEPT NEARBY THE HIGH CENTER IN THE NE GULF
WHERE WINDS ARE OF 5 KT. MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL FRESH E TO SE
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE NE GULF WATERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THE BASIN IS A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE
FAR W CARIBBEAN THAT IS ALREADY MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA.
SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR FURTHER DETAILS. MODERATE
MOIST AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IN THE NW BASIN ENHANCES
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 18N W OF 80W. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR
AND STRONG WIND SHEAR DOMINATE ELSEWHERE...THUS SUPPRESSING
CONVECTION. NE TO E WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT ARE FROM 11N TO 13.5N
BETWEEN 73W AND 77W WITH SEAS OF 10 TO 13 FT. NE TO E WINDS OF
20 TO 25 KT ARE FROM 10.5N TO 17N BETWEEN 70W AND 83W WITH SEAS
OF 8 TO 11 FT. A NEW TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES LATE FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS.

...HISPANIOLA...

VERY DRY AIR IS PRESENTLY ACROSS THE ISLAND AS DEPICTED BY SSMI
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THIS IS SUPPORTING CLEAR SKIES
AND FAIR WEATHER AT THE TIME. SHALLOW MOISTURE IS OVER OFFSHORE
WATERS OF HAITI AND ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE. SHALLOW MOISTURE TO
THE E OF THE ISLAND MAY ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS LATER THIS
MORNING. A SAHARAN DRY AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
ISLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER BUT
POSSIBLE HAZY CONDITIONS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NE OF EASTERN CUBA ALONG WITH SHALLOW
MOISTURE SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS W OF THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE REMAINDER SW N ATLC IS
BEING INFLUENCED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH
NEAR 30N70W THAT SUPPORT STABILITY AND FAIR WEATHER. FARTHER
E...A MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE N-CENTRAL ATLC CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N46W TO
A 1018 MB LOW NEAR 31N57W...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
TODAY. THE REMAINDER CENTRAL AND E ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
38N36W. HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE
THE NEXT THREE DAYS. FOR TROPICAL WAVES INFORMATION...SEE
SECTION ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR
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