[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101027
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC WITH AXIS APPROXIMATELY
ALONG 31W...MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY DEPICT THIS WAVE AT THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF
MAINLY MODERATE MOISTURE FROM 03N-21N. ENHANCED METEOSAT IMAGERY
SHOW SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT...WHICH IS
INHIBITING CONVECTION AT THIS TIME.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS
APPROXIMATELY ALONG 58W...MOVING W AT AROUND 15 KT. SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY DEPICT THIS WAVE IS MAINLY EMBEDDED
IN A DRY ENVIRONMENT. ENHANCED METEOSAT IMAGERY SHOW SAHARAN DRY
AIR AND DUST IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT...WHICH INHIBIT CONVECTION
AT THIS TIME.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 20N85W...ACROSS HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA....MOVING
W AT 15 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY DEPICT MODERATE MOIST AIR IN THE
NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHILE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IS TO THE
S-SE OF ITS AXIS. A DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT ALONG CENTRAL
AMERICA SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN S OF 19N W
OF 84W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE S OF 15N W
OF 79W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
08N25W TO 08N37W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 08N37W AND CONTINUES TO
08N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 12N E OF
19W AND FROM 08N TO 14N BETWEEN 50W AND 55W. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 24W AND 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO EPAC
COASTAL WATERS COVERS THE WESTERN GULF W OF 93W. THE CENTRAL AND
PORTIONS OF THE SE BASIN ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WHILE
DIFFLUENT FLOW DOMINATES ACROSS THE NE GULF. SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE
CARIBBEAN INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND EASTERN GULF. DIFFLUENT
FLOW W OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 93W
SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF
25N. OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING HOLD ANCHORED
BY A 1020 MB CENTER NEAR 29N85W. E TO SE WINDS OF 15 KT DOMINATE
ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT NEARBY THE HIGH CENTER IN THE NE GULF
WHERE WINDS ARE OF 5 KT. MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL FRESH E TO SE
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER MOVES WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THE BASIN IS A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE
FAR W CARIBBEAN THAT IS ALREADY MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA.
SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR FURTHER DETAILS. DEEP LAYER
DRY AIR AND STRONG WIND SHEAR DOMINATE ELSEWHERE...THUS
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. NE TO E WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT ARE FROM
11.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W WITH SEAS OF 10 TO 13 FT. NE TO
E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE FROM 11N TO 15.5N BETWEEN 71W AND 80W
WITH SEAS OF 10 TO 13 FT. WINDS OF 20 KT OR LESS ARE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF AREA FROM 10.5N TO 17N BETWEEN 73W AND 82W WITH
SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT IN NE TO E SWELL. A NEW TROPICAL WAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE TODAY WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS
FOR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

...HISPANIOLA...

VERY DRY AIR IS PRESENTLY ACROSS THE ISLAND AS DEPICTED BY SSMI
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THIS IS SUPPORTING CLEAR SKIES
AND FAIR WEATHER AT THE TIME. SHALLOW MOISTURE IS OVER OFFSHORE
WATERS OF HAITI AND ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE. A SAHARAN DRY
AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER BUT POSSIBLE HAZY
CONDITIONS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NE OF EASTERN CUBA ALONG WITH SHALLOW
MOISTURE SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 22N TO 27N
BETWEEN 67W AND 75W. THE REMAINDER SW N ATLC IS BEING INFLUENCED
BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 30N74W THAT
SUPPORT STABILITY AND FAIR WEATHER. FARTHER E...A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE N-CENTRAL ATLC CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N38W TO 28N52W.
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OBSERVED AT THE TAIL OF THE FRONT FROM 28N
TO 30N BETWEEN 50W AND 53W. A 1018 MB LOW IS NEAR 31N57W...FROM
WHICH A TROUGH EXTENDS TO 27N59W...NO CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TODAY. THE REMAINDER
CENTRAL AND E ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 37N31W. HIGH PRESSURE
AND RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
FOR TROPICAL WAVES INFORMATION...SEE SECTION ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR
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