[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 092352
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU JUL 09 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
15N29W TO 07N29W...MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT. SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY DEPICTS THIS WAVE AT THE LEADING EDGE
OF A SURGE OF MODERATE TO HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT BETWEEN 02N-21N
AND EXTENDS E REACHING THE AFRICAN COAST. ENHANCED METEOSAT
IMAGERY SHOWS SAHARAN DUST IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE WHICH
IS INHIBITING CONVECTION AT THIS TIME.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS AT ABOUT 300 NM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 16N55W TO 09N56W...MOVING W AT AROUND
20 KT. SAHARAN DUST IS ALSO IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE
WHICH IS INHIBITING CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 18N83W TO 10N83W. SSMI TPW IMAGERY DEPICTS MODERATE TO HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT SURROUNDING THIS WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION PREVAILS S OF 16N AND W OF 81W AFFECTING
NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 16N16W TO
09N28W...THEN RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 08N31W TO 08N39W
...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 09N54W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
AXIS W OF 28W AND WITHIN 50 NM OF THE ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

CYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF MAINLY W OF 90W FROM
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 17N99W.
A DIFFLUENT FLOW PREVAILS E OF THIS FEATURE SUPPORTING MODERATE
CONVECTION ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CENTRAL AMERICA.
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF
27N. TO THE E...A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 29N85W. THE
PROXIMITY AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE SW ATLANTIC IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
THE SOUTHERN CONUS AFFECTING THE E GULF WATERS E OF 84W.
SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE BASIN WHILE A GENTLE TO MODERATE
SE FLOW PREVAILS S OF 25N. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT
CONVECTION OVER THE SW AND FAR E GULF TO PREVAIL AS THE UPPER
LEVEL FEATURES REMAIN IN PLACE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALSO EXTENDING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN MAINLY S OF 19N. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN S OF 19N. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. A DRY SAHARAN AIRMASS AND STRONG SHEAR
CONTINUE TO PREVENT DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER
PRESSURES OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA SUPPORTS
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MAINLY
S OF 16N BETWEEN 72W-84W. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR
CONVECTION TO PREVAIL OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. A TROPICAL WAVE
WILL APPROACH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CONTINUES N OF THE ISLAND SUPPORTING ISOLATED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC CENTERED
NEAR 29N71W. TO THE E...A WEAK 1018 MB SURFACE LOW PREVAILS NEAR
31N57W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THIS LOW TO 28N60W
WHILE A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SE FROM THE LOW TO 29N50W TO
34N42W. SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC. TWO
TROPICAL WAVES WERE ANALYZED ACROSS THE BASIN...PLEASE REFER TO
THE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. A BROAD SAHARAN AIRMASS
PREVAILS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WHICH CONTINUES TO INHIBIT
ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE SURFACE LOW AND FRONT OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA
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