[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080558
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUL 08 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR 19W...MOVING W
AT 5 KT. ACCORDING TO METEOSAT IMAGERY...THE WAVE CONTINUES
BEING ENGULFED BY SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST...WHICH IS SUPPORTING
LACK OF CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ENTERING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BASIN. ITS
AXIS IS APPROXIMATELY NEAR 70W AND MOVES W AT 10 KT. SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATE THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A LOW TO MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT THAT IS ENHANCING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 13N BETWEEN 66W AND 74W. ELSEWHERE...
STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR HINDER CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
APPROXIMATELY NEAR 77W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER INDICATE THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW TO
MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT THAT IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS
FROM 11N TO 17N AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITH TSTMS S
OF 11N. DEEP CONVECTION N OF 11N IS BEING HINDER IN PART DUE TO
STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO
08N20W TO 09N28W TO 08N34W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
AXIS BEGINS NEAR 08N34W TO 07N41W TO 04N47W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IN THE VICINITY OF THE
ITCZ AND MONSOON TROUGH.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

THE GULF BASIN CONTINUES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A VERY BROAD
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N89W. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY SHOW MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE W-NW GULF TO THE
CENTRAL BASIN WHERE LIFTING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW
SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 25N TO 27N BETWEEN 87W AND 90W.
MODERATE MOIST AIR CONTINUES ACROSS FLORIDA THAT ALONG WITH A
MIDDLE LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NORTHERN PENINSULA
SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF
27N E OF 85W. STRONG DEEP LATER WIND SHEAR PARTLY INHIBITS
CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND RIDGING HOLD ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB CENTER NEAR
28N85W. N TO NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN
89W AND 92W WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. E TO SE WINDS OF 15 KT
DOMINATE ELSEWHERE EXCEPT NEARBY THE HIGH CENTER IN THE NE GULF
WHERE WINDS ARE OF 5 KT. MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL FRESH E TO SE
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE HIGH
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE NE GULF WATERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

WITH THE PRESENCE OF A BROAD AND ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT
ALOFT IN THE EPAC MONSOON TROUGH REGION...THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN...CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ARE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. EAST PACIFIC MOISTURE
ADVECTING NORTHEASTWARD ENHANCE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH TWO
TROPICAL WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN. SEE TROPICAL WAVES
SECTION ABOVE. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW DRY
AIR ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN...INCLUDING THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA AND CUBA WHERE DUST AND HAZY
CONDITIONS ARE BEING REPORTED. OTHERWISE...NE TO E WINDS OF 20
TO 25 KT ARE FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 70W AND 78W WITH SEAS FROM
8 TO 11 FT. WINDS OF 20 KT OR LESS ARE ELSEWHERE S OF 17N
BETWEEN 72W AND 83W WITH SEAS FROM 8 TO 9 FT IN NE SWELL. FRESH
TO STRONG TRADES S OF 17N BETWEEN 68W-83W ARE FORECAST TO
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AHEAD.

...HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOIST AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF TWO TROPICAL WAVES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH AIR LIFTING PROVIDED BY
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST N OF THE ISLAND SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE N-NW ISLAND AND ADJACENT
WATERS. SAHARAN DUST CONTINUE TO BE REPORTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
ISLAND...WHICH SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER BUT HAZY CONDITIONS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SW N ATLC CENTERED NEAR 24N72W ALONG
WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM
24N TO 29N W OF 72W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 43N53W AND A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 36N31W. HIGH PRESSURE AND
RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THE NEXT THREE DAYS. FOR
TROPICAL WAVES INFORMATION...SEE SECTION ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net