[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 072343
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUL 07 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N19W TO 18N17W MOVING W AT 10 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A GLOBAL MODEL INDICATED 700 MB TROUGH
BETWEEN 15W-20W THAT IS PROGRESSING OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA
THIS EVENING. MOST CONVECTION REMAINS INLAND ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF WEST AFRICA WITH SCATTERED MODERATE AND STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 09N-18N BETWEEN 05W-14W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N66W TO 17N65W MOVING W AT 15 TO 20
KT. THE WAVE IS MOVING WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
CENTRAL ATLC MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 22N59W. GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES A 700 MB 30-35 KT LOW-LEVEL JET MAXIMUM TO
THE EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED
WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N75W TO 18N75W MOVING W AT 15 TO 20
KT. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITHIN VERY
BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 72W-
82W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH THE WAVE AT
THIS TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO
09N16W TO 10N29W TO 08N35W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N35W TO 07N43W TO 07N50W TO 06N54W. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ AND MONSOON TROUGH.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MAJORITY OF THE GULF BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A VERY
BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N88W. WHILE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS NO EXTENSIVE DEEP MOISTURE BASIN-WIDE...VISIBLE
IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WITH ONLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING ACROSS MOSTLY INLAND
PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE...RIDGING
HOLDS ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE NE GULF NEAR
29N86W. MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL FRESH E TO SE WINDS GENERALLY
PREVAIL AROUND THE RIDGE AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEK AS THE HIGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE NE GULF
WATERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WITH THE PRESENCE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO...THE NW CARIBBEAN AND PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. EAST
PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN PROVIDING FOCUS WITHIN WEAK
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 16N W OF 75W.
WITH THE APPROACH OF A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 75W...THE
PROBABILITY OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE SW
CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE WAVE MOVES
WESTWARD. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN
REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY ALOFT DUE TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN VENEZUELA
AND TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. OTHERWISE...THE PRIMARY IMPACT ACROSS
THE BASIN REMAINS AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES S OF 17N
BETWEEN 68W-82W THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AHEAD.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...A FEW LATE EVENING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING DUE TO EARLIER PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY...
HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. CONDITIONS ALOFT CONTINUE TO REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY WITHIN
WESTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLAND NEAR 25N72W. LIFTING
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ARE ALSO LIKELY
ANOTHER FACTOR IN THE CONVECTION OCCURRING THIS EVENING. WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE SLOWLY DRIFTING WEST...IT IS LIKELY A
REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF TODAY FOR WEDNESDAY WITH LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
OF THE CAROLINAS NEAR 35N74W SW TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
NEAR 28N82W. AMPLE MID-LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA
COASTLINES. MOST OF THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INLAND
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. TO THE SOUTHEAST...A
FAIRLY BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N72W THAT
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING FROM 23N-29N
BETWEEN 66W-76W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC
AND WESTERN CENTRAL ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N67W.
FINALLY...THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
STATIONARY 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N38W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN
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