[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081048
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED JUL 08 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR 20W...MOVING W
AT 5 KT. ACCORDING TO METEOSAT IMAGERY...THE WAVE CONTINUES
BEING ENGULFED BY SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST...WHICH IS SUPPORTING
LACK OF CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ENTERING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BASIN. ITS
AXIS IS APPROXIMATELY NEAR 71W AND MOVES W AT 10 KT. SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATE THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A LOW TO MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT THAT IS ENHANCING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 13N BETWEEN 61W AND 73W. ELSEWHERE...
STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR HINDER CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
APPROXIMATELY NEAR 80W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER INDICATE THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW TO
MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT THAT IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS S OF 13N W OF 80W AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
WITH TSTMS S OF 11N BETWEEN 75W AND 79W. DEEP CONVECTION N OF
13N IS BEING HINDER IN PART DUE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO
07N20W TO 08N29W TO 08N33W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
AXIS BEGINS NEAR 08N33W TO 07N46W TO 06N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 05N TO 12N E OF 21W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 170 NM N OF THE ITCZ W OF
50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

THE GULF BASIN CONTINUES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A VERY BROAD
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 23N91W. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY SHOW MODERATE MOIST AIR CONTINUES ACROSS FLORIDA
AND OFFSHORE WATERS THAT ALONG WITH A MIDDLE LEVEL DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED
TSTMS N OF 24N E OF 85W. STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR PARTLY
INHIBITS CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING HOLD ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB CENTER NEAR
28N85W. NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN
90W AND 93W WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. E TO SE WINDS OF 15 KT
DOMINATE ELSEWHERE EXCEPT NEARBY THE HIGH CENTER IN THE NE GULF
WHERE WINDS ARE OF 5 KT. MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL FRESH E TO SE
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE HIGH
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE NE GULF WATERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

WITH THE PRESENCE OF A BROAD AND ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT
ALOFT IN THE EPAC MONSOON TROUGH REGION...THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN...CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ARE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. EAST PACIFIC MOISTURE
ADVECTING NORTHEASTWARD ENHANCE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH TWO
TROPICAL WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN. SEE TROPICAL WAVES
SECTION ABOVE. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW DRY
AIR ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN...INCLUDING THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA AND CUBA WHERE DUST AND HAZY
CONDITIONS ARE BEING REPORTED. OTHERWISE...NE TO E WINDS OF 20
TO 30 KT ARE FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 71W AND 79W WITH SEAS FROM
8 TO 11 FT. E TO SE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 15N
TO 18N BETWEEN 71W AND 74W WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. WINDS OF 20 KT OR
LESS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER AREA FROM 10.5N TO 17N BETWEEN 72W
AND 83W WITH SEAS TO 9 FT IN NE TO E SWELL. FRESH TO STRONG
TRADES S OF 17N BETWEEN 71W-83W ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AHEAD.

...HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOIST AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF TWO TROPICAL WAVES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH AIR LIFTING PROVIDED BY
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST N OF THE ISLAND SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE N-NW ISLAND AND ADJACENT
WATERS. SAHARAN DUST CONTINUE TO BE REPORTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
ISLAND...WHICH SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER BUT HAZY CONDITIONS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SW N ATLC CENTERED NEAR 24N73W ALONG
WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM
23N TO 26N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF
18N IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026
MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N68W AND A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 36N30W.
HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THE NEXT
THREE DAYS. FOR TROPICAL WAVES INFORMATION...SEE SECTION ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR
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