[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011057
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED JUL 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT FROM 10.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND
77W...IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA...FORECAST TO LAST FOR
THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. THE SEA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM 11 FEET TO 15 FEET. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/
FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W FROM 15N
SOUTHWARD.14N26W 10N28W 6N29W... MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
ITCZ-RELATED CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS NEARBY.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N68W 15N71W
11N71W...MOVING WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS IN THE
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE WAVE.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND
70W...INCLUDING THE WATERS THAT SURROUND PUERTO RICO.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ALONG THE LINE
FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO JAMAICA...TO 14N79W TO CENTRAL PANAMA.
THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE APPARENT AROUND HISPANIOLA...
WHICH STILL IS ENGULFED BY A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 13N17W...TO 10N22W AND 8N33W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 8N33W TO 5N45W...AND TO THE COASTS OF FRENCH GUIANA AND
SURINAME. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 17W AND 18W...AND WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS OF 8N60W NEAR THE COASTAL BORDER OF GUYANA AND VENEZUELA.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 10N23W 9N30W 9N40W 6N47W 7N57W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES AWAY FROM AN EASTERN
MEXICO/COASTAL PLAINS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...AND IT FLOWS TOWARD
THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS ALONG THE LINE
FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
16N82W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE SOUTHERNMOST PART OF THE TROUGH IS JUST TO
THE SOUTH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG...FROM THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TO 30N BETWEEN 79W AND
THE U.S.A. EAST COAST. BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE
AREA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN 86W AND 88W.

A DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 92W/93W FROM 18N TO 23N.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IS IN THE COASTAL
WATERS AND COASTAL PLAINS OF MEXICO FROM 19N TO 26N ALONG THE
BORDER OF THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...
BETWEEN 94W AND 98W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALSO IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS
FLORIDA...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO
BORDER. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO
EVERYWHERE...EXCEPT NEAR THE 92W/93W DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...EXCEPT FOR THE RIDGE AND ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
THAT ARE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA/ALSO IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W

MIDDLE LEVEL SOUTHEASTERN WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM
14N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 78W AND NICARAGUA. 600 MB TO 800 MB
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM 14N
SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 80W AND ACROSS ALL OF NICARAGUA.

TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO
THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR DETAILS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SURROUNDS
HISPANIOLA...THANKS TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA TROUGH
THAT PASSES THROUGH 25N69W TO 16N73W. THE 600 MB TO 800 MB WIND
FLOW IS FROM THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS HISPANIOLA. RAINSHOWERS ARE
APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY IN THE COASTAL WATERS ON THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN SIDE OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND BETWEEN
HAITI...JAMAICA...AND CUBA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH
THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR ABOUT THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHEAST-TO-
SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL COVER THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO
25N69W TO HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN
60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH...AND FROM THE
GREATER ANTILLES NORTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND 80W. THE 24-HOUR
RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 01/0000
UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.39 IN
BERMUDA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THAT IS
COLD FROM 32N15W TO 28N28W...AND STATIONARY FROM 28N28W TO
28N40W...AND 27N54W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N13W
27N24W 25N40W 24N60W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 34N49W TO 32N54W...28N67W...ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA...BEYOND 25N85W IN THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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