[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011803
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED JUL 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS CONTINUES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA
FROM 10.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS
RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 FT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE-FORCE
THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER RESUMING FRIDAY MORNING. PLEASE READ
THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR 29W
FROM 05N TO 12N...MOVING W AT 5 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE
WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT THAT ALONG WITH
A DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS FROM 04N TO 11N BETWEEN 26W AND 32W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR
70W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT THAT ENHANCES SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND SOUTHERN WATERS N OF 14N.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR 80W
...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS
MAINLY EMBEDDED IN A DRY ENVIRONMENT THAT HINDERS
CONVECTION...EXCEPT S OF 10N WHERE A PATCH OF MODERATE MOISTURE
ENHANCES ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AND
PANAMA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 11N16W TO 09N24W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 08N37W AND
CONTINUES TO 08N28W 06N50W TO 07N58W. ASIDE THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 18W AND 27W AND FROM 03N
TO 09N BETWEEN 37W AND 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE COVERS SOUTHERN MEXICO...THE WESTERN
BAY OF CAMPECHE AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IS ALONG THE FAR WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH ALONG A
MIDDLE LEVEL DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF
MEXICO SUPPORT NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS
FROM 20N TO 28N W OF 92W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSIST ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS...ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF WITH A BASE OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN. LIFTING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER FEATURE ALONG
WITH MOIST AIR ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN GULF AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 26N E OF
90W...INCLUDING NORTHERN FLORIDA. OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND RIDGING DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN BEING ANCHORED BY
A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 27N85W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING
WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

GALE-FORCE WINDS CONTINUE ALONG COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON...RESUMING AGAIN FRIDAY. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR 80W...HOWEVER DEVOID OF CONVECTION DUE
TO THE PRESENCE OF DEEP LAYER DRY AIR. AHEAD OF THE WAVE...THE
BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND CONUS GENERATES A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT THAT ENHANCES
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 17N TO 21N
W OF 80W. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS STARTING TO MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS WAVE WITH AXIS NEAR 70W IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A BULGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE THAT CURRENTLY ENHANCES
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER EASTERN HISPANIOLA AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS PUERTO RICO. SEE TROPICAL
WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. THE TWO TROPICAL WAVES
WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE BASIN DURING THE NEXT TWO
DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

THE BASE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS OVER HISPANIOLA FOLLOWED BY A
TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS NEAR 70W. THIS WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
BULGE OF MODERATE MOIST AIR THAT SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
AND ADJACENT WATERS. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH THURSDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE BASE OF A MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO EXTEND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SW N ATLC WATERS THUS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS N OF 28N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ARE ACROSS PUERTO RICO NORTHERN OFFSHORE WATERS BEING SUPPORTED
BY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN AND A
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW N OF HISPANIOLA
AND A RIDGE COVERING THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL ATLC. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E ATLC WATERS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 27N25W
TO 26N40W TO 28N52W. RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR
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