[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUL 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE FORECAST CONSISTS OF GALE-FORCE WINDS STARTING DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF
COLOMBIA...FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 74W AND 75W...AND THOSE GALE-
FORCE WINDS ONLY WILL LAST FOR ABOUT 6 HOURS. THE SEA HEIGHTS
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 10 FEET TO 15 FEET. PLEASE READ THE
HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N26W 10N28W 6N29W...
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. ITCZ-RELATED CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS NEARBY.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N65W 14N67W
10N67W...MOVING WESTWARD 30 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS JUST TO THE EAST
OF PUERTO RICO. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA OF THE WAVE. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 13N
TO 17N BETWEEN 63W AND 68W...AND IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF PUERTO RICO.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N73W IN HAITI...TO
15N75W AND TO 10N75W IN COASTAL COLOMBIA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE APPARENT AROUND HISPANIOLA...
WHICH STILL IS ENGULFED BY A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF MAURITANIA
NEAR 21N17W TO 18N19W 14N19W AND TO 10N25W. THE ITCZ STARTS FROM
9N30W TO 7N42W TO 5N53W IN NORTHWESTERN FRENCH GUIANA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
WITHIN 90 NM TO 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 12N16W 9N23W 7N40W
5N48W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN
FLORIDA. THE SOUTHERNMOST PART OF THE TROUGH IS JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG...FROM THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TO 30N BETWEEN 79W AND
THE U.S.A. EAST COAST. BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE
AREA.

A DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH HAS EMERGED FROM THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...AND NOW IT IS IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE
WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM
24N NORTHWARD. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING AROUND A
1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N87W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...EXCEPT FOR THE RIDGE THAT IS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA/ALSO IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS AFFECTING
HISPANIOLA.

TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO
THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR DETAILS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SURROUNDS
HISPANIOLA...THANKS TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA
TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 25N69W TO 16N73W.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR ABOUT THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHEAST-TO-
SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL COVER THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO
25N69W TO HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN
60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND 80W. THE
24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
01/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.39 IN
BERMUDA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG
28N/29NW BETWEEN 20W AND 50W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60
NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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