[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 090604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN AUG 09 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W...FROM 20N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE WAVE COINCIDES
WITH A 700 MB TROUGH. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N50W 14N52W 11N53W
08N47W...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH
A 700 MB TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE
FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 46W AND 54W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL
NEAR 14N17W TO 12N20W 12N26W 10N34W AND 09N43W. THE ITCZ IS NOT
PRESENT AT THIS TIME. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 15W AND 17W IN SENEGAL
AND GAMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 06N TO
09N BETWEEN 13W AND 16W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE FROM 06N TO 10N FROM 40W EASTWARD.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 21N100W...IN THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF MEXICO.
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 24N SOUTHWARD
FROM 93W WESTWARD...AND INLAND IN MEXICO.  AREA FROM 10N TO 26N
BETWEEN 93W AND 100W. SOME OF THE AFFECTED AREA IS IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND SOME IS INLAND IN
MEXICO. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST
OF THE AREA.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 25N70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...TO A 1016 MB GULF OF MEXICO HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 24N89W...EVENTUALLY CONTINUING TO THE LOWER
TEXAS GULF COAST.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...AS IT MOVES FROM ATLANTIC OCEAN ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO
CUBA...ACROSS CUBA INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THEN IT CURVES
NORTHEASTWARD...ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE NORTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IS NEAR 17N75W...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF HAITI AND JAMAICA...IN THE
BROADER AND LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR
10N88W...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...
AND THEN COMPLETELY SOUTHEASTWARD...ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA FROM GUATEMALA TO HONDURAS AND NORTHEASTER NICARAGUA...
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TOWARD
VENEZUELA. THE WIND FLOW THAT IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THIS
RIDGE MERGES WITH THE LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT SPANS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS RELATED
TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN 29N64W TO 23N64W ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE COASTAL
WATERS ON THE CARIBBEAN SEA SIDE OF CUBA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 14N74W 12N77W 10N77W.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IN COLOMBIA FROM 05N
TO 10N BETWEEN 73W AND 75W. SIMILAR PRECIPITATION ALSO WAS
COVERING PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...LAKE MARACAIBO...
DURING THE LAST 5 TO 6 HOURS. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND
POSSIBLY LINGERING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF LAKE MARACAIBO AT THIS TIME.

...HISPANIOLA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING AROUND
HISPANIOLA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM
18N TO 21N BETWEEN THE EASTERN SECTIONS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SOME PRECIPITATION IS INLAND IN THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND IN HAITI.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERS WILL BE IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF HAITI...
SENDING CYCLONIC WIND FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT INVERTED TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS
HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS
THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH AN
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED
RIDGE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N78W...
OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA AND FLORIDA...TO THE ATLANTIC WATERS
THAT ARE BETWEEN GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND FLORIDA NEAR 26N/27N
ALONG 79W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
31N73W TO 30N78W...BEYOND FLORIDA AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA.
ABOUT 200 NM TO THE EAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A...FROM THE
CAROLINAS TO FLORIDA. THE BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALSO IS
SHOWN IN THE ISOBARIC ANALYSIS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED STRONG FROM 30N NORTHWARD BETWEEN
73W AND 78W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN
77W AND 80W. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS COVER THE AREAS FROM THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...FLORIDA...AND THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO FROM 26N TO 31N BETWEEN 77W AND 87W.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 29N64W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER TO A 23N64W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 21N
TO 32N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 58W AND 70W.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N21W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER TO 21N26W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS
APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN THE AREA THAT IS FROM 20N TO
27N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 30W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 29N TO
32N BETWEEN 18W AND 22W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 40N40W...THROUGH 32N49W TO 27N57W 25N70W...ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS...TO A 1016 MB GULF OF MEXICO HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 24N89W...EVENTUALLY CONTINUING TO THE LOWER TEXAS GULF
COAST.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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