[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 082347
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT AUG 08 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 33W/34W FROM
10N-20N DRIFTING W OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE GLOBAL MODEL SHOWS
THE WAVE ALONG 700 MB TROUGH AND THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A WEAK SURGE OF MOISTURE.
THE NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A PLUMB OF
AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 18N49W TO
10N53W MOVING W-NW NEAR 10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE GLOBAL
MODEL SHOWS THE WAVE ALONG 700 MB TROUGH AND THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY DOES NOT SHOW ANY SURGE OF MOISTURE.
THE NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE WAVE IS W OF THE LEADING EDGE OF A
PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 13N17W ALONG 10N28W TO 9N41W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 8N49W 10N56W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
10N62W. AREA IS VOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO AND E
CONUS ANCHORED OVER MISSISSIPPI AND CENTRAL TEXAS. A SECOND
UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE S GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED S OF CENTRAL
AMERICA. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA
OUTER BANKS TO NE FLORIDA TO NEAR GAINSVILLE FLORIDA SUPPORTING
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE W ATLC AND A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE E
GULF OF MEXICO THAT EXTENDS INTO THE GULF JUST N OF TAMPA BAY
ALONG 28N84W TO 28N87W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 28N BETWEEN 84W-
88W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE S/CENTRAL GULF ANCHORED BY
A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 25N89W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT S
WHILE WEAKENING THROUGH EARLY MON. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH WILL
MOVE SE ACROSS THE SAME AREA TUE INTO WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE S GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE FAR W
CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER LOW N IS NE OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS EXTENDING
AN UPPER TROUGH TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NARROWING S OF THE ISLANDS THEN
EXTENDING W JUST S OF CUBA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE UPPER
TROUGH COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA...CUBA...
AND JAMAICA. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. MAINLY MODERATE TRADES WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH WED EXCEPT FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG TRADES IN THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY THE UPPER TROUGH COUPLED WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING ARE
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE
INLAND OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH WED. MOISTURE IS MOVING ACROSS THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND WILL MOVE ACROSS HAITI ON MON. THIS SCENARIO WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUE GIVING THE AREA SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH
CAROLINA TO NE FLORIDA JUST S OF JACKSONVILLE SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N74W AND EXTENDS TO 31N78W
WHERE IT BECOMES A STATIONARY FRONT TO OVER SE GEORGIA. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS THE E EXTENDING THROUGH 32N72W ALONG 30N75W TO
THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 26N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 28N TO THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN 75W-79W.
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST S OF SAINT AUGUSTINE. AN
UPPER LOW IS TO THE NE OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS CENTERED NEAR
29N63W AND EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH S TO OVER THE GREATER
ANTILLES BETWEEN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 25N-31N BETWEEN 57W-70W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS
DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH N OF THE
AZORES AND EXTENDING A SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 32N53W TO E OF THE
BAHAMAS NEAR 26N70W. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY S
THROUGH MON NIGHT WHILE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING. SURFACE RIDGE
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON THEN SHIFT SLIGHTLY N OF TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net