[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091110
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN AUG 09 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N35W 15N34W 10N33W...
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A 700 MB
TROUGH. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES
THE WAVE.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N50W 14N51W 11N51W...
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A 700 MB
TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 06N TO
11N BETWEEN 50W AND 56W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL
AND GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N17W TO 11N27W 10N35W 08N43W. THE ITCZ
IS NOT PRESENT AT THIS TIME. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN
13W AND 16W...AND FROM 09N TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 21W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 23N100W...IN THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF MEXICO.
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 25N SOUTHWARD
FROM 94W WESTWARD...AND INLAND IN MEXICO.

MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS COVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE LINE 29N93W
25N91W 24N85W 24N81W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 22N69W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND
CUBA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO A 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 26N88W...EVENTUALLY CONTINUING TO THE LOWER TEXAS
GULF COAST.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...AS IT MOVES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO
CUBA...ACROSS CUBA INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THEN IT CURVES
NORTHEASTWARD...ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE NORTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IS NEAR 17N74W...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF HAITI...IN THE BROADER AND
LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 10N88W...INTO THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... AND THEN COMPLETELY
SOUTHEASTWARD...ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM GUATEMALA
TO HONDURAS AND NORTHEASTER NICARAGUA... ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TOWARD VENEZUELA. THE WIND FLOW
THAT IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THIS RIDGE MERGES WITH THE LARGE-
SCALE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE LARGE-
SCALE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN 29N64W
TO 23N64W ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE IS ON THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SIDE...TO THE NORTH
OF HISPANIOLA...AS FAR AS 22N AND BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...AND IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF CUBA ON THE
CARIBBEAN SEA SIDE.

A MIDDLE LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 14N74W 12N77W 10N77W.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF COLOMBIA...ACROSS PANAMA...INTO
THE GULF OF URABA OF COLOMBIA.

...HISPANIOLA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING AROUND
HISPANIOLA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IS ON
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SIDE...TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...AS FAR AS
22N AND BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...AND
IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF CUBA ON THE CARIBBEAN SEA SIDE.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERS WILL BE IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF HAITI...
SENDING CYCLONIC WIND FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT INVERTED TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS
HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS
THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH AN
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED
RIDGE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N75W TO
THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N72W TO 29N79W...BEYOND NORTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA...AND INTO  SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
IS SHOWN IN THE ISOBARIC ANALYSIS FROM 30N NORTHWARD. A 1011 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...WITH A TROUGH
TRAILING NORTHWESTWARD FROM IT. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE IS WITHIN
30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N72W TO 29N76W AND 26N79W. MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST OF THE LINE 29N93W 25N91W 24N85W 24N81W. UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 29N64W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER TO A 23N64W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 22N TO 32N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 59W AND 70W.

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 25N41W.
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THIS CENTER COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN WITHIN 210 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 18N37W 23N40W
26N45W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE SURROUNDS THIS
FEATURE COMPLETELY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N21W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER TO 21N26W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS
APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN THE AREA THAT IS FROM 20N TO
27N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 30W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 29N TO
32N BETWEEN 18W AND 22W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N50W TO 28N58W TO 22N69W...
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO A 1016
MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N88W...EVENTUALLY
CONTINUING TO THE LOWER TEXAS GULF COAST.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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