[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT41 KNHC 120232
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
1100 PM AST THU SEP 11 2014

Tropical Depression Six has been upgraded to Tropical Storm
Edouard, the fifth tropical storm of the 2014 Atlantic hurricane
season. The initial intensity of 35 kt is based on satellite
estimates of T2.5 on the Dvorak scale from TAFB, SAB and UW CIMSS.
The cloud pattern is now more symmetric with the low-level center
embedded within the deep convection. The upper-level outflow is good
in the northern semicircle and poor elsewhere.

Although the atmospheric environment--including increasing wind
shear--is not ideal for strengthening, Edouard will be moving over a
pool of anomalous warm waters in the north central Atlantic during
the next few days. This will likely aid the intensification process,
and the cyclone is expected to become a hurricane during that time.
The NHC forecast is very close to the intensity consensus ICON.

Edouard is moving toward the west-northwest or 300 degrees at 11
knots. The subtropical ridge currently steering the cyclone
on that general track is forecast to weaken and shift eastward as a
large mid-latitude trough approaches from the west. This new pattern
should force Edouard to turn northward by the end of the forecast
period, and eventually to recurve over the open Atlantic. There is
confidence in the northward turn since that is the solution of most
of the track guidance. The NHC forecast follows very close the
multi-model consensus TVCA and an average of the GFS and the
ECMWF models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/0300Z 17.3N  39.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  12/1200Z 18.1N  41.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  13/0000Z 19.0N  43.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  13/1200Z 20.3N  45.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  14/0000Z 21.5N  47.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  15/0000Z 24.0N  50.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  16/0000Z 27.0N  53.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  17/0000Z 30.0N  55.5W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila



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