[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT41 KNHC 112041
TCDAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
500 PM AST THU SEP 11 2014

Tropical Depression Six is slowly becoming better organized, with
increasing convective banding in the northwestern semicircle.
Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 35 kt and 30 kt
respectively, and a recent CIRA AMSU estimate was 32 kt.  The
initial intensity remains 30 kt.  The cirrus outflow is good in the
northern semicircle and poor elsewhere.

The initial motion is 310/13.  A low-/mid-level ridge north of the
cyclone should steer it generally west-northwestward to
northwestward for the next 3-4 days.  After that, the track
guidance forecasts the system to turn generally northward between
the ridge and a large mid-/upper-level low south of Bermuda.  the
guidance has come into somewhat better agreement that the northward
turn should occur between 49W-55W, as the Canadian model has
shifted westward since its previous run.  The official forecast is
an update of the previous package, and it lies near the center of
the guidance envelope.

The depression remains in an environment of light vertical wind
shear.  The large-scale models continue to forecast some increase in
southerly shear after 24 hours, although less shear is forecast than
seen for the previous advisory.  The intensity guidance responds to
this, and to increasing sea surface temperatures along the forecast
track, by showing more intensification than previously, especially
after 48 hours. The new intensity forecast is nudged upward from
72-120 hours in best agreement with the intensity consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/2100Z 17.0N  38.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  12/0600Z 17.9N  40.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  12/1800Z 19.0N  42.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  13/0600Z 20.1N  44.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  13/1800Z 21.6N  46.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  14/1800Z 24.5N  50.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  15/1800Z 27.5N  52.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  16/1800Z 30.5N  53.5W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven



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