[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT41 KNHC 120841
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
500 AM AST FRI SEP 12 2014

Edouard is feeling the effects of moderate vertical wind shear as
the center is on the southwest edge of the deep convection.  The
current intensity values from both SAB and TAFB suggest that the
cyclone remains a low-end tropical storm and its intensity is kept
at 35 kt.  While Edouard will be traversing progressively warmer
waters during the next three to four days, it may only gradually
intensify due to the inhibiting effects of about 15 kt of deep layer
shear and dry lower-tropospheric air. Indeed, dropsondes launched by
the unmanned NASA Global Hawk aircraft this evening showed very dry
conditions just to the southwest of Edouard.  The official intensity
forecast, based upon a blend of the LGEM and SHIPS statistical
models and the HWRF dynamical model, is just slightly below the
prediction from the previous advisory.

Microwave passes by the TRMM and SSMI low-earth orbiting satellites
assisted substantially in determining the initial position and
current motion, indicating that Edouard was a bit farther west than
estimated earlier.  The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward
at a faster rate of about 13 kt. Edouard should gradually turn
toward to the north by the end of the forecast period, as it moves
around the periphery of a deep-layer ridge to its north and through
a weakness in the ridge.  The official track forecast is based upon
the tightly clustered TVCA multi-model consensus and is slightly
west of the previous track prediction because of the more westerly
initial position.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/0900Z 17.6N  41.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  12/1800Z 18.6N  43.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  13/0600Z 19.7N  45.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  13/1800Z 20.7N  47.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  14/0600Z 22.0N  49.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  15/0600Z 24.8N  53.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  16/0600Z 27.5N  55.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  17/0600Z 31.0N  55.5W   70 KT  80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Landsea


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