[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281740
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH THE
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N40W TO 09N40W AND IS MOVING W 10-15 KT.
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN THE DRY SAHARAN AIR
LAYER WHICH IS INHIBITING CONVECTION. ALONG THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE WAVE A DEEP LAYER MOIST ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 06N-13N BETWEEN 31W-40W.
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE IS POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. SEE
LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA WITH THE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 19N87W TO 08N87W AND IS MOVING W 20 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED OVER NICARAGUA...EASTERN
HONDURAS...AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA NEAR
12N16W AND THEN CONTINUES ALONG TO 09N25W TO 08N40W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N40W TO
06N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION...POSSIBLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE TO COME OFF THE AFRICAN
COAST...IS LOCATED FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN 13W AND 19W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAKENING MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
POSITIONED OVER MEXICO NEAR 20N100W AND IS MOVING SLOWLY W.
MODERATE EASTERLIES TO NORTHEASTERLIES ALOFT COVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING STRONG
SUBSIDENCE OVER MOST OF THIS AREA. AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH IS
LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. A 1020 MB HIGH IS
LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 26N89W. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE
LOCATED OFF OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT COVER THE NW PART OF THE BASIN.
CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN N OF 14N E OF 70W IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
LOCATED OVER THE ATLANTIC NEAR 23N64W. GENERALLY FAIR SKIES
COVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
EXCEPT FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS DUE TO ENHANCED
DAYTIME HEATING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...ABOUT
EIGHT DEGREES IN DIAMETER...IS LOCATED NEAR 23N64W...MOVING
SLOWLY NW. AN OVAL SHAPED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N48W.
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE AREA N OF ABOUT 29N BETWEEN 20W
AND 40W. A LARGE AREA OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COVERS A LARGE
AREA OF THE ATLANTIC FROM NEAR THE EQUATOR TO 25N E OF 55W INTO
AFRICA. AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM 31N75W TO
28N79W. A 1026 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 33N55W AND A 1024 MB HIGH
IS LOCATED NEAR 32N44W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM
31N28W TO 27N42W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
CAB


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