[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290001
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED ON THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 10N34W. A
TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE LOW AND EXTENDS FROM 18N40W TO 9N39W.
THE LOW AND TROPICAL WAVE ARE MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. A DEEP LAYER
MOIST ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
FROM 6N-13N BETWEEN 30W-41W. A DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS N AND W
OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE WITHIN 48 HOURS. SEE THE LATEST NHC
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOAT/ABNT20
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS INTRODUCED ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA.
THE WAVE EXTENDS FROM 20N16W TO 10N18W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. A
MOIST AREA IS NOTED ON THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. SOME LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS ALSO NOTED ON THE
BASE OF THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-
10N BETWEEN 14W-20W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. THE WAVE
EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 20N88W TO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC NEAR 9N89W MOVING W AT 25 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA AT 11N15W
TO 8N20W TO 10N34W TO 7N42W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 7N42W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 5N53W.
BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES AND
SPECIAL FEATURE LOW...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE  ALONG THE COAST OF
WEST AFRICA FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 10W-16W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 20W-25W...AND FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 41W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 27N92W. 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER MOST OF
THE GULF. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 95W-98W. AIR MASS ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER N FLORIDA...AND THE WESTERN
TIP OF CUBA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE GULF. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
NEAR 21N97W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS PRODUCING NE FLOW OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
SURFACE HIGH TO MOVE W TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. MOREOVER EXPECT A
COLD FRONT TO BE OVER THE N GULF IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION.
ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE DUE TO A
TROPICAL WAVE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. SEE ABOVE. 10-25 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG
THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED WITH
THE TROPICAL WAVE...AIR MASS SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER E NICARAGUA...AND E HONDURAS. MORE
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER E CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS... A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER
JAMAICA. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
NEAR 22N64W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO BE
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. ALSO EXPECT AIRMASS CONVECTION OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...CUBA...AND HISPANIOLA.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER
HISPANIOLA FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 69W-72W. MORE AIR MASS AFTERNOON
SHOWERS OR CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED TUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN
75W-78W. A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 33N54W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 31N27W
TO 28N30W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. OF
NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER
THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 22N64W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 20N-27N
BETWEEN 62W-71W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N48N
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
WESTERN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA

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