[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 281141 AAA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WATERS WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 19N39W TO 8N36W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES EMBEDDED IN THE
DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER WHICH IS INHIBITING CONVECTION N OF 14N.
SOUTH OF 14N...THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS IN A DEEP
LAYER MOIST ENVIRONMENT WHICH ALONG UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 5N-13N BETWEEN 26W-
41W. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE IS POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE.
SEE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. ITS AXIS EXTENDS FROM
19N85W TO 8N86W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WHICH ALONG
UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 18N W OF 81W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA NEAR
11N16W AND THEN CONTINUES ALONG 9N26W TO 9N40W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 9N40W TO 8N50W
TO 6N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE TO COME OFF THE AFRICAN COAST IS
FROM 5N-13N E OF 18W. THE OTHER AREA OF CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. SEE ABOVE FOR
DETAILS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

EXCEPT FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...
MOSTLY DRY AIR IS ACROSS THE BASIN AT THE LOWER LEVELS AND UPPER
LEVELS. AT THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE SE PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE
ANCHORED OVER TEXAS EXTENDS INTO THE GULF AND SUPPORT A 1019 MB
HIGH NEAR 27N88W WHICH IS PROVIDING VARIABLE WINDS OF 5-15 KT
BASIN-WIDE. AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE SW
GULF SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 21N91W TO 17N93W WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 20N E OF 94W. ELSEWHERE...AN
OVERALL STABLE ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR
WEATHER. SURFACE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF
THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

TROPICAL WAVE FORMERLY ALONG 82W IS NOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA. THIS WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE WHICH IS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS ACROSS GREAT PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SW BASIN. IN ADDITION...THE WAVE SUPPORTS
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
HONDURAS COAST AND TRADES OF 20-25 KT S OF 17N W OF 80W. SEE
TROPICAL WAVE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. A MID-UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED OVER TEXAS EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SE ACROSS
THE BAHAMAS. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR
22N62W IS GENERATING DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN TO SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER EASTERN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. CLEAR SKIES AND TRADES OF 10-
15 KT DOMINATE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NW CARIBBEAN
BASIN THROUGH TUE MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY...A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT GENERATED BY THE SE
PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE ANCHORED OVER TEXAS AND AN UPPER LOW OVER
THE SW N ATLC SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE ISLAND. EXCEPT FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS
BEING ENHANCED BY DAYTIME HEATING...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST THROUGH EARLY WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 23N63W CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 67W-71W WHILE ANOTHER
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALOFT SUPPORT A CLUSTER OF MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 57W-60W. OVER THE E ATLC...A MID-
UPPER LEVEL LOW N OF THE AREA CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT TRANSITIONS TO A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 30N26W SW TO
26N37W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE REMAINDER
BASIN IS FAIRLY DRY AND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING
ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 32N53W AND A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR
33N44W. THESE TWO FACTORS SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE IN THE
BASIN. OTHERWISE...SEE ABOVE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION. SURFACE
RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC THE
NEXT TWO DAYS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
SW N ATLC BY TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR/CAB

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