[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191033
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 15N27W TO 8N30W MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE IS IN THE VICINITY OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH SUPPORTING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 25W-31W. ELSEWHERE...DRY SAHARAN
AIR IS N OF 15N.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
14N49W TO 6N50W MOVING W AT 10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS
LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT OF THE
ITCZ. CURRENTLY WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED
FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 49W-56W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
17N64W TO 9N67W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. A
DEEP LAYER MOIST ENVIRONMENT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AS SEEN
ON SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES TO 8N25W TO 7N44W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS NEAR 7N44W AND CONTINUES TO 7N49W. THE ITCZ RESUMES W OF
A TROPICAL WAVE AT 8N51W AND EXTENDS TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST
NEAR 8N60W. IN ADDITION TO THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
6N-9N BETWEEN 32W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 0900 UTC...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDS ALONG THE
COASTS OF LOUISIANA AND TEXAS FROM LAKE CHARLES NEAR 30N93W TO S
OF CORPUS CHRISTIE NEAR 27N97W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 92W-95W. PREFRONTAL
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF SE LOUISIANA FROM 28N-30N
BETWEEN 88W-91W. 10-15 KT SE TO S SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE GULF.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE
NE GULF NEAR 29N84W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING W TO BROWNSVILLE
TEXAS. A GOOD AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE
OVER THE N GULF N OF 26N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE S GULF.
EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE NE GULF AND N FLORIDA OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. 15-25 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG
THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER S HAITI
AND THE ENTIRE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER COSTA RICA AND PANAMA FROM 9N-12N
BETWEEN 81W-85W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER HONDURAS NEAR 15N88W. ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 16N70W. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE TO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN S OF HISPANIOLA WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE
MONSOON TROUGH TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER PANAMA AND
THE SW CARIBBEAN. FURTHER MORE EXPECT CONVECTION TO ADVECT OVER
TRINIDAD AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM THE ATLANTIC.

...HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER S HAITI. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO BE OVER HISPANIOLA DUE TO THE TROPICAL
WAVE...AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW S OF THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE N BAHAMAS FROM 26N78W TO CUBA AT
22N77W. A LARGE 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 38N46W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N50W TO 26N54W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE TROUGH AXIS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS
PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 71W-
75W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 30N52W ENHANCING SHOWERS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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