[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190545
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 15N26W TO 6N28W MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN THE
MONSOON TROUGH WHICH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 26W-30W.
ELSEWHERE...DRY SAHARAN AIR IS N OF 15N.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
15N46W TO 5N48W MOVING W AT 10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT OF THE
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH. CURRENTLY ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
17N63W TO 7N65W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. A
DEEP LAYER MOIST ENVIRONMENT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AS SEEN
ON SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES TO 8N30W TO 7N44W. THE ITCZ
BEGINS NEAR 7N44W AND CONTINUES TO 7N50W TO NEAR TRINIDAD AT
10N61W. IN ADDITION TO THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 30W-
40W...AND FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 53W-56W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS INLAND OVER TEXAS FROM BEAUMONT
TO BROWNSVILLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT.
A PREFRONTAL SQUALL LINE IS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO FROM
PANAMA CITY FLORIDA TO 28N89W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE SQUALL LINE. 10-15 KT SE TO S
SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 29N84W WITH A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING W TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. A GOOD AMOUNT OF UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE N GULF N OF 26N.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE S GULF. EXPECT CONTINUED
CONVECTION OVER THE NE GULF AND N FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. 15-25 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG
THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS
OVER S HAITI AND THE ENTIRE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS OVER COSTA RICA FROM 10N-11N BETWEEN 83W-85W.
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER HONDURAS
NEAR 15N88W. ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED S OF
HISPANIOLA NEAR 16N70W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF HISPANIOLA
WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE MONSOON TROUGH TO PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER PANAMA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN. FURTHER
MORE EXPECT CONVECTION TO ADVECT OVER TRINIDAD AND THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS FROM THE ATLANTIC.

...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS OVER S HAITI. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION BE OVER HISPANIOLA
DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE...AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW S OF THE
ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N77W TO THE N
BAHAMAS AT 26N78W. A LARGE 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 38N47W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N50W TO 25N52W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE TROUGH AXIS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS.
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 30N52W ENHANCING SHOWERS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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