[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191734
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM 16N29W THROUGH A 1014 MB LOW NEAR
09N31W TO 07N31W IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW WITH NO CONVECTION
ELSEWHERE.

A TROPICAL WAVE ABOUT 580 NM E OF THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD
ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 17N50W TO 08N52W AND IS MOVING W 10-15 KT.
MINIMAL CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AND IS CONFINED
TO THE SOUTHERN PART IN PROXIMITY TO THE ITCZ.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 19N66W TO 10N68W...MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS
WEAK WITH MINIMAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND W AFRICA INTO THE
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 13N16W AND CONTINUES TO 07N30W TO 08N45W. THE
ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 08N45W AND CONTINUES TO 10N52W TO 08N62W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED ALONG
AND UP TO 120 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 34W AND 45W.
STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED N OF THE ITCZ TO 12N BETWEEN
54W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COVERS MOST OF THE GULF WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH NE FLORIDA TO 26N90W TO THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST. A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO COVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF IN TWO DAYS. AT THE SURFACE A COLD
FRONT IS LOCATED THROUGH SW LOUISIANA TO 28N95.5W TO NEAR CORPUS
CHRISTI TEXAS. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED TSTMS
N OF 27.5N BETWEEN 85W AND 95.5W. MINIMAL CLOUDINESS COVERS THE
REST OF THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN N OF 17N W OF
75W. A WEAK MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N73W TO 12N76W.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
BASIN. THE CARIBBEAN IS VOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
EXCEPT FOR A SMALL AREA OVER THE COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA BORDER.

...HISPANIOLA...

INCREASING CLOUDS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING COVERS MOST OF THE
ISLAND. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE RIDGE AXIS MENTIONED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION CONTINUES
INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N75W ACROSS
NE FLORIDA. A WELL-DEFINED AND LARGE OVAL SHAPED MIDDLE/UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 28N56W. IT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE TO NEAR 28N62W IN 48 HOURS. A TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDS SW TO NEAR 20N68W. MOVING DOWNSTREAM A MUCH WEAKER AND
SMALLER MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED NEAR
27N28W. RIDGING ALOFT IS LOCATED BETWEEN THE TWO CYCLONIC
CIRCULATIONS. MODERATE EASTERLIES ALOFT COVER THE DEEP TROPICS S
OF 15N TO THE EQUATOR WITH SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATING
SPEEDS AS HIGH AS 35 KT. AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH
32N76W TO 25N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE LOCATED FROM
24N TO 28N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W. ANOTHER TROUGH IS LOCATED
THROUGH 32N54W TO 26N55W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
CAB


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