[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 152357
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS N OF THE ITCZ WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 18N46W
TO 9N48W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. NO CONVECTION IS OCCURRING AT THIS
TIME AS THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN THE DRY AIR OF THE SAHARAN
AIR LAYER.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 19N76W TO 12N78W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY
SHOW A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
WAVE WHERE SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE BEING ENHANCED
BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS AFFECTING
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA...JAMAICA AND WESTERN HISPANIOLA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
7N29W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS NEAR 7N29W
AND THEN CONTINUES ALONG 7N45W TO 9N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 27W-30W...FROM 6N-10N
BETWEEN 37W-45W AND FROM 9N-14N W OF 54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS FROM MAINE SW TO NORTHERN LOUISIANA IS CONVERGING
WITH A MOIST AIRMASS IN THE GULF. THIS IS CREATING ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY AND GENERATING HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF N OF 27N E OF 95W. A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH
BASE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COASTLINE SUPPORT THIS CONVECTION AS
WELL. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GULF
AND GENERATES A DIFFLUENT ZONE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALONG WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE REGION IS
SUPPORTING HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA AS WELL AS OFFSHORE WATERS OF SE FLORIDA. THE
RIDGE ALOFT IS SUPPORTING A 1016 MB HIGH ANCHORED N OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 23N88W WHICH IS PROVIDING ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW OF 5-10 KT S OF 27N. NORTH OF 27N WESTERLY FLOW OF 15 KT
DOMINATES. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED
OVER THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 22N. A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE NE WATERS WEDNESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS NEAR
27N71W EXTENDS A TROUGH S TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA AND
COLOMBIA. THIS TROUGH ALONG WITH A TROPICAL WAVE JUST S OF
EASTERN CUBA IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA...JAMAICA AND NORTH-CENTRAL
HISPANIOLA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED ON ADJACENT WATERS OF SW
CUBA. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTHERN COSTA RICA AND
PANAMA TO A 1009 MB LOW OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND IS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 11N BETWEEN 77W-83W. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND STRONG RIDGING N OF THE
AREA IN THE NW ATLANTIC IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE
WINDS MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. BY FRIDAY
MORNING THE WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN WILL MOVE INTO N CENTRAL
AMERICA WHILE A NEW WAVE ENTERS THE E CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS EXTENDS A
TROUGH THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHICH ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE
NEARBY ARE CAUSING ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY AND THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER NORTHERN-CENTRAL HISPANIOLA.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ELSEWHERE. WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO IMPROVE BY WED MORNING AS A DRY AIRMASS APPROACHES
THE ISLAND BY THE SOUTH.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 27N71W TO THE NE OF THE
BAHAMAS AN CONTINUES TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS W OF
72W. FARTHER EAST...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N62W TO
27N68W SUPPORTING SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 23N-32N
BETWEEN 60W-66W. OTHERWISE...BESIDES THE TROPICAL WAVE...THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N51W WHICH IS
SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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