[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160545
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 04N30W TO 11N25W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH GLOBAL MODEL INDICATED 700 MB
TROUGHING AND AN 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM IN THE
VICINITY OF 09N27W ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-08N BETWEEN 28W-32W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N49W TO 19N47W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BROAD 700 MB TROUGH BETWEEN 43W-
53W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE WAVE AT
THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N81W TO 21N77W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT
THE WAVE IS MOVING BENEATH PROVIDING RELATIVELY STABLE
CONDITIONS. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W TO
07N25W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
08N31W TO 08N36W TO 06N43W TO 10N54W TO 09N61W. A SURFACE TROUGH
REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ ANALYZED FROM 07N43W TO 16N40W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-11N BETWEEN 40W-
48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A LONGWAVE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS THAT DIPS ITS BASE SOUTHWARD OVER THE
SE CONUS AND GULF COAST E OF 92W. THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT ANALYZED FROM NORTHERN GEORGIA THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS WITH
A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN GEORGIA SW
TO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SOUTH OF
THESE BOUNDARIES ALONG WITH THE MARGINAL MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS GENERATED BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS GENERATING
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 26N BETWEEN 81W-
89W. FATHER SOUTH...AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 17N94W THAT IS PROVIDING AN
OVERALL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT S OF 24N...HOWEVER A WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 25N84W IS
MAINTAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN THE FLORIDA
STRAITS AND NE COAST OF MEXICO. ACROSS THE SW GULF...WHILE
SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLOUDINESS IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY S OF 23N BETWEEN THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL REGION AND THE COAST OF MEXICO. MOST CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY REMAINS INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO THIS EVENING.
LOOKING AHEAD...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN GULF WATERS WHILE BECOMING STATIONARY AND WEAKENING
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE
EASTWARD WITH SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASING FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS
TEXAS AND MOVES E-NE TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND OHIO
VALLEYS FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W
OF 73W THAT IS PROVIDING OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO WEDNESDAY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING N OF 17N W OF 74W...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTION IS PRESENT...EVEN WITH THE PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 79W. FARTHER
EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ALONG 70W
STEMMING FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC
NEAR 28N72W. THE TROUGHING AND MARGINAL LIFTING DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED CLOUDINESS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 16N BETWEEN 68W-74W...INCLUDING
HISPANIOLA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE REGION. OTHERWISE...ACROSS
THE SE CARIBBEAN...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS BETWEEN 58W-64W. FINALLY...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS AREAL
COVERAGE GROWS SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD LATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY GENERALLY S OF 17N BETWEEN 67W-82W DUE TO
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE ISLAND DUE
TO A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 70W.
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE SLOW TO MOVE OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION IS ONCE AGAIN
LIKELY FOR THE ISLAND ON WEDNESDAY WITH PEAK HEATING AND
INSTABILITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N72W THAT EXTENDS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SOUTHWARD ALONG 70W TO A BASE OVER THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THE TROUGHING CONTINUES TO PULL MOISTURE
SOUTHWARD ON ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY AWAY FROM A LONGWAVE TROUGH
NOTED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE SW NORTH ATLC FROM 20N-31N
BETWEEN 71W-79W. TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND ADVECTION IS MAXIMIZED IN AN AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING FROM 21N-32N BETWEEN 61W-68W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
34N52W. THE ONLY EXCEPTION AND WEAKNESS NOTED IN THE RIDGING IS
THE PRESENCE OF A COLD FRONT JUST BEGINNING TO ENTER THE
DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N BETWEEN 35W-45W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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