[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151737
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1800 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 07N47W TO 16N44W MOVING W AT 15
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BROAD AND WEAK 700 MB TROUGH
BETWEEN 42W-50W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH
THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N73W TO 19N72W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS IN A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS AT THE BASE OF AN
UPPER TROUGH PIVOTING THROUGH EASTERN CUBA. MODEST CONVECTION IS
NOTED IN THE AREA BETWEEN HAITI...JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA BUT
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE OR UPPER TROUGH.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N16W TO
09N30W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
09N30W TO 06N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN
180 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 35W AND 42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ARE NOTED THIS MORNING WITHIN 60
NM OF THE COASTLINE FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
EASTWARD TO SW FLORIDA. SCATTERED CONVECTION HAD BEEN ACTIVE
FARTHER OUT INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO EARLIER THIS MORNING IN THE UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF THE LOOP CURRENT. THE CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN GULF
IS BEING ENHANCED TO SOME DEGREE BY A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGGING INTO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. OTHERWISE A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM SW FLORIDA TO 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR
TAMPICO. BUOY DATA INDICATED MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES NORTH OF
THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW ELSEWHERE. A TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS IN THE
FAR SW GULF PREVIOUSLY HAS PUSHED WESTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN
MEXICO. A COLD FRONT RELATED TO THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE NE WATERS THROUGH MID WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN N OF 14N. DRIER AND SUBSIDENT W TO NW FLOW ALOFT
PERSISTS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER CYCLONE CENTERED
NORTH OF THE AREA. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS
MAINLY THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...SOUTH OF STRONG RIDGING N
OF THE AREA IN THE NW ATLANTIC. THIS TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE IS
SUPPORTING AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR SW
CARIBBEAN ALONG THE COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND WESTERN PANAMA. THE
 A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN BETWEEN HAITI AND NE COLOMBIA...ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE. MODERATE TO FRESH EAST WINDS ARE ALSO NOTED
OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS AS RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND A TROPICAL
WAVE THAT IS EXITING TO THE WEST THROUGH SOUTHERN MEXICO.

...HISPANIOLA...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS APPROACHING HISPANIOLA FROM THE NW. THIS IS
SUPPORTING CONVECTION ON THE WESTERN TIP OF THE NORTHERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPEAR SOMEWHAT
LOWER THAN USUAL AS NOTED TPW IMAGERY AND THIS MAY BE A LIMITING
FACTOR FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. HOWEVER THE INTERACTION OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM ACROSS THE ISLAND
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 28N72W TO THE NE OF THE
BAHAMAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER CYCLONE...MAINLY IN THE MORE UNSTABLE
AIRMASS ALONG THE GULF STREAM. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS ALSO NOTED TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER CYCLONE
WITHIN 120 NM OF 27N65W. BUOY 41019 IS STATIONED IN THE MIDDLE
OF THIS AREA OF CONVECTION...AND EARLIER REPORTS SHOWED PEAK
WINDS TO 27 KT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS WITH SEAS TO 6 FT. FARTHER
EAST...THE AIRMASS REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY N OF 15N AND EAST OF
60W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED BETWEEN 42W AND 47W S OF 20N IN
AN AREA OF LOWER TO MID LEVEL TROUGHING AS NOTED IN GOES DERIVED
WINDS AND MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. ENHANCED TRADE WINDS CONVERGENCE
TO THE EAST OF THE TROPICAL WAVE IS SUPPORTING AREAS OF
CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE ITCZ. OTHERWISE...THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ATLC ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N51W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
CHRISTENSEN

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