[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151049
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 07N46W TO 16N43W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BROAD AND WEAK 700 MB TROUGH
BETWEEN 42W-50W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH
THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N73W TO 19N70W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT THE
WAVE IS MOVING BENEATH PROVIDING RELATIVELY STABLE CONDITIONS.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N97W TO 19N94W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING ACROSS
SOUTHERN MEXICO WITH ENERGY ALOFT FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF
18N93W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 89W-
95W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 16N17W TO
09N22W TO 08N31W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 08N31W TO 08N51W TO 06N56W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-11N BETWEEN 32W-39W AND FROM 07N-
11N BETWEEN 53W-58W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI SW TO OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 26N100W THAT CONTINUES TO
PROVIDE MUCH OF THE GULF WITH SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
THIS MORNING. ANOTHER FOCUS OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY IS IN THE
VICINITY OF 29N87W THAT IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
N OF 26N BETWEEN 82W-89W. OTHERWISE...THE GULF REMAINS FAIRLY
TRANQUIL AT THE SURFACE DUE TO A RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
THE SW NORTH ATLC ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
TO THE EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO COAST NEAR 21N97W. OTHERWISE...THE
ONLY OTHER AREA OF SIGNIFICANCE IS THE PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL
WAVE S OF 19N ALONG 94W MOVING WEST ACROSS THE EXTREME SW GULF
WATERS AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO GENERATE
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
AND GULF WATERS S OF 22N BETWEEN 87W-96W. LOOKING AHEAD...THE
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG 25N
THROUGH THURSDAY. THEREAFTER SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS
TEXAS AND MOVES E-NE TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOSTLY NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. WHILE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLOUDINESS CONTINUE TO ADVECT EASTWARD AWAY FROM CONVECTION
OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
OVERALL AT THE SURFACE CONDITIONS REMAIN TRANQUIL WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING
IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE REGION FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 71W-79W.
OTHERWISE...A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W AND CONTINUES TO MOVE
WESTWARD ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC. FINALLY...
THE PERSISTENCE OF A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG
TRADES IS NOTED S OF 16N BETWEEN 68W-79W. THIS AREA OF TRADES IS
FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS AREAL COVERAGE
GROWS SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY GENERALLY S OF 17N BETWEEN 68W-82W DUE TO STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE ISLAND. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS ELEVATED
IN NATURE DUE TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FOCUSED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS
TO THE NORTH. AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION IS LIKELY FOR THE
ISLAND ON TUESDAY WITH PEAK HEATING AND INSTABILITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N74W THAT EXTENDS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SOUTHWARD TO A BASE NEAR 21N72W. THE TROUGHING
IS GENERATING AN AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING
FROM 25N-32N BETWEEN 73W-80W. FARTHER EAST...A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N64W THAT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A
SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 23N69W TO 30N67W. AN AREA OF WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS OCCURRING PRIMARILY EAST OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS FROM 23N-32N BETWEEN 59W-66W IN AN AREA OF
MAXIMUM MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. OTHERWISE...THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N51W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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