[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150541
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N42W TO 17N39W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BROAD AND WEAK 700 MB TROUGH
BETWEEN 36W-44W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH
THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N64W TO 19N64W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE IS MOSTLY EMBEDDED WITHIN DRY AIR ALOFT INHIBITING
ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N96W TO 20N95W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO WITH ENERGY ALOFT EXTENDING
FROM OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS STRETCHING WESTWARD TO THE WAVE
AXIS ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-22N BETWEEN 87W-94W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W TO
08N22W TO 08N31W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 08N31W TO 10N42W TO 10N62W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-09N BETWEEN 19W-25W AND FROM 07N-11N
BETWEEN 52W-58W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-10N
BETWEEN 29W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER THE
ARKLATEX REGION SW TO OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 26N100W THAT CONTINUES
TO PROVIDE MUCH OF THE GULF WITH SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT THIS EVENING. ANOTHER FOCUS OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY IS IN THE
VICINITY OF 30N88W OVER THE ALABAMA GULF COAST THAT IS
SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 29N BETWEEN 86W-90W.
OTHERWISE...THE GULF REMAINS FAIRLY TRANQUIL AT THE SURFACE DUE
TO A RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO
COAST NEAR 22N98W. THE RIDGE IS MAINTAINING MOSTLY FAIR
CONDITIONS WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS NOTED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY WITHIN THE COASTAL WATERS OFF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA S
OF 26N. OTHERWISE...THE ONLY OTHER AREA OF SIGNIFICANCE IS THE
PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL WAVE S OF 20N ALONG 95W MOVING WEST
ACROSS THE EXTREME SW GULF WATERS AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE WAVE
CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND GULF WATERS S OF 21N. LOOKING AHEAD...THE
WEAK EAST-WEST SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ANCHORED
ALONG 25N THROUGH THURSDAY. THEREAFTER SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ACROSS TEXAS AND MOVES E-NE TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOSTLY NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. WHILE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLOUDINESS CONTINUE TO ADVECT EASTWARD AWAY FROM CONVECTION
OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
OVERALL AT THE SURFACE CONDITIONS REMAIN TRANQUIL WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING
IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE REGION FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 69W-81W.
OTHERWISE...A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
CARIBBEAN WATERS AND LESSER ANTILLES. FINALLY...THE PERSISTENCE
OF A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES IS NOTED S
OF 15N BETWEEN 68W-78W. THIS AREA OF TRADES IS FORECAST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS AREAL COVERAGE GROWS SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY GENERALLY
S OF 17N BETWEEN 68W-82W DUE TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC.

...HISPANIOLA...
EARLIER CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DIMINISH WITH ONLY A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS REMAINING ACROSS THE ISLAND. MORE
INTENSE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING TO THE WEST ACROSS THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE WATERS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS OF EASTERN CUBA.
HISPANIOLA WILL CONTINUE TO FIND ITSELF WITHIN A FAVORABLE
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT AS THE BASE OF A SW NORTH ATLC
TROUGH LIES OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN THE SE BAHAMAS AND EASTERN
CUBA. AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION IS LIKELY FOR THE ISLAND
ON TUESDAY WITH PEAK HEATING AND INSTABILITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 29N73W THAT EXTENDS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SOUTHWARD TO A BASE NEAR 22N74W. THE TROUGHING
IS GENERATING AN AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING
FROM 24N-31N BETWEEN 72W-80W. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM BERMUDA NEAR 32N65W SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. FARTHER EAST...A
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N63W THAT CONTINUES
TO SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 23N67W TO 30N67W. AN
AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS OCCURRING
PRIMARILY EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS FROM 22N-32N BETWEEN
59W-66W. OTHERWISE...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ARE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY THE 1028 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 34N51W AND A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED SOUTH OF THE
AZORES NEAR 33N27W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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